# Kentucky Derby 2017



## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Horselover- I didn't see you had already started a thread. If mods can move what I posted to here and delete mine that would be great. Glad to see excitement for the Derby.


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## 3rdTimestheCharm (Jan 18, 2015)

I'm very excited for the coming weekend! I'm also rooting for Patch, but I think that Classic Empire or McCraken will be sporting those roses.

With such a wide open field this year, it is sure to be an exciting race!


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## csimkunas6 (Apr 18, 2010)

Im so excited! Not as prepared as past Derby races, as I used to follow the racing scene quite a bit but havent for a few years until about a month before the derby so I can make my pick. This year, Im wayyy behind and just made my pick yesterday. Im rooting for Irish War Cry. He's a Curlin baby, and Curlin is one of my all time favorite studs, and of course I followed him when he was racing.

Not going, although Id love to, just have too much going on this year to even think about leaving for a few days! lol


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## BlindHorseEnthusiast4582 (Apr 11, 2016)

I'll be looking forward to watching as well. I'm also rooting for patch since he's half blind, and obviously I'm fond of vision-impaired horses.  

In reality though I think Classic Empire is one who will be pushing hard for this race. I watched previous races from the others too and he's the only one that was impressive at all IMO. Haven't watch Patch race though so need to do that. 

I seriously doubt there will be a Triple Crown. Pharaoh was special, as are all horses who win the big triple, and I just don't think any of these horses have got it. I also don't want to see another so soon honestly. If it happens too often it becomes less of an vent. 

I'll be watching Preakness and Belmont too, just because. Hopefully the Breeder's Cup as well.


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## horseylover1_1 (Feb 13, 2008)

aubie said:


> Horselover- I didn't see you had already started a thread. If mods can move what I posted to here and delete mine that would be great. Glad to see excitement for the Derby.


I may have started mine after you posted yours. lol. Sorry if I did. I looked through recent posts and didn't see one. No harm in it though, like you said it's nice to see there is excitement for it. :grin:


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## horseylover1_1 (Feb 13, 2008)

BlindHorseEnthusiast4582 said:


> I seriously doubt there will be a Triple Crown. Pharaoh was special, as are all horses who win the big triple, and I just don't think any of these horses have got it. I also don't want to see another so soon honestly. If it happens too often it becomes less of an vent.


Very true. If we had a Triple Crown winner every few years it wouldn't be nearly as special. What I would love to see is a filly win the Triple Crown. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's never been done before.


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## BlindHorseEnthusiast4582 (Apr 11, 2016)

horseylover1_1 said:


> Very true. If we had a Triple Crown winner every few years it wouldn't be nearly as special. What I would love to see is a filly win the Triple Crown. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's never been done before.


No, that's correct. Only 13 horses total have won it, and all were colts. The huge 37 year gap was between Affirmed and American Pharaoh. Then again very few fillies race in these. There are other races made for the fillies (though I'd love to see them better represented alongside the boys), and most owners seem to keep them with the fillies.


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## horseylover1_1 (Feb 13, 2008)

BlindHorseEnthusiast4582 said:


> No, that's correct. Only 13 horses total have won it, and all were colts. The huge 37 year gap was between Affirmed and American Pharaoh. Then again very few fillies race in these. There are other races made for the fillies (though I'd love to see them better represented alongside the boys), and most owners seem to keep them with the fillies.


I have always thought it would be cool to reserve a spot in the KY Derby to the filly that wins the Oaks. And have a special reward for her if she wins both. I know very little about racehorses though; not sure if it would be way too much on the horse to run two races like that in 24 hours time.


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## BlindHorseEnthusiast4582 (Apr 11, 2016)

horseylover1_1 said:


> I have always thought it would be cool to reserve a spot in the KY Derby to the filly that wins the Oaks. And have a special reward for her if she wins both. I know very little about racehorses though; not sure if it would be way too much on the horse to run two races like that in 24 hours time.


Yeah, that would probably be too much, especially since the Kentucky Derby is typically a pretty strenuous race. There's a reason very few owners expect their horse to run all three triple crown races. It's a lot of strain on their bodies to run races like that.


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## EliRose (Aug 12, 2012)

It would be _very_ dangerous to run in two GI events (or frankly any race at all) in 24 hours, especially one being the Derby. The Derby is an absolute cavalry charge. What would make sense is that the top Oaks point collector had a spot available in the Derby, just like Japan.

Classic Empire is very much a Triple Crown-hope kind of horse. Don't forget that he was the _unanimous_ two-year-old champ, and last year the crop was looking hot. Really good horse.
Just wish he had a better trainer. Casse is really good at blowing other people's money . . . Not so much training. He trained the great Tepin, but IMO she would have overcome any trainer.


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## BlindHorseEnthusiast4582 (Apr 11, 2016)

EliRose said:


> It would be _very_ dangerous to run in two GI events (or frankly any race at all) in 24 hours, especially one being the Derby. The Derby is an absolute cavalry charge. What would make sense is that the top Oaks point collector had a spot available in the Derby, just like Japan.
> 
> Classic Empire is very much a Triple Crown-hope kind of horse. Don't forget that he was the _unanimous_ two-year-old champ, and last year the crop was looking hot. Really good horse.
> Just wish he had a better trainer. Casse is really good at blowing other people's money . . . Not so much training. He trained the great Tepin, but IMO she would have overcome any trainer.


From what I have seen I agree that's he's a good horse, I just don't think he'll win the Triple Crown. There's been a lot of hopefuls through the years that have fallen flat in the Belmont or Preakness. I'm not saying it's impossible, but won't be holding my breath. I'll openly admit that I don't know a huge amount about him, just have a gut feeling that if they do try to put him through the three, he'll fizzle out. Maybe I'm wrong though. Time will tell. :grin:


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Here is an article on Patch One-Eyed Patch Something Special in Pletcher Barn | BloodHorse.com


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## EliRose (Aug 12, 2012)

BlindHorseEnthusiast4582 said:


> From what I have seen I agree that's he's a good horse, I just don't think he'll win the Triple Crown. There's been a lot of hopefuls through the years that have fallen flat in the Belmont or Preakness. I'm not saying it's impossible, but won't be holding my breath. I'll openly admit that I don't know a huge amount about him, just have a gut feeling that if they do try to put him through the three, he'll fizzle out. Maybe I'm wrong though. Time will tell. :grin:


Never say never  Plenty of people thought Pharoah couldn't run the Derby distance (and that when he did win that the Derby had cooked him), let alone win the Belmont in style.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Here is another documentary that in years past has run during Derby week, that I don't know if folks have seen, but may find interesting. This one is on Whirlaway. It's incredibly well done and includes so much history I think would be appealing to everyone.


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## EliRose (Aug 12, 2012)

Whirly!!!! My favorite TC winner. Such a nut.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Here are the entries for the Kentucky Oaks on Friday 



PP. Horse, jockey/trainer odds

1. Ever So Clever, Luis Contreras/ Steve Asmussen 20-1


2. Lockdown, Jose Ortiz/ Bill Mott 20-1


3. Mopotism, Mario Gutierrez/ Doug O’Neill 20-1


4. Paradise Woods, Flavien Prat/ Richard Mandella 5-2


5. Jordan’s Henny, Joe Rocco Jr/ Michael Tomlinson 30-1


6. Vexatious, Kent Desormeaux/ Neil Drysdale 20-1


7. Farrell, Channing Hill/ Wayne Catalano 5-1


8. Sailor’s Valentine, Corey Lanerie/ Eddie Kenneally 30-1


9. Wicked Lick, Brian Hernandez Jr./ Brendan Walsh 30-1


10. Miss Sky Warrior, Paco Lopez/ Kelly Breen 9-2


11. Tequilita, Luiz Saez/ Michael Matz 20-1


12. Daddys Lil Darling, Julien Leparoux/ Kenny McPeek 20-1


13. Abel Tasman, Mike Smith/ Bob Baffert 5-1


14. Salty, Joel Rosario/ Mark Casse 6-1


AE: Summer Luck 30-1


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## SorrelHorse (Apr 9, 2009)

I am in it for Gormley and Patch this year. As for the Oaks, I really like Sailors Valentine, but I have been watching Tequilita work and she has some serious moxy. I don't follow super closely but I've done some work with racing thoroughbreds in the past so I make a point to take a look every now and then.


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## MerriBelle1 (Apr 19, 2017)

I'll be watching all 3 races. I usually keep stats on all the horses.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

@MerriBelle1 welcome. Definitely check back here. Would love to hear what kind of stats/ what you look for/ any thoughts.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Poor Patch, got the 20 spot. Gonna be hard to overcome that, and Gaffalione as a jockey.


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## horseylover1_1 (Feb 13, 2008)

aubie said:


> Poor Patch, got the 20 spot. Gonna be hard to overcome that, and Gaffalione as a jockey.


Especially with him missing his left eye.. that is the worst place he could have gotten. The gates are drawn randomly, right?

Supposed to rain and be cool all day tomorrow so probably will have to skip the Pegasus Parade.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Yes it is a random draw. He does have a top trainer in Pletcher, so he has that going for him. He has a nice pedigree. His sire won the Belmont so distance shouldn't be a problem, which from out there he is going to need. Going by memory, Union Rags was in the 4 hole in the Derby, which is bad enough, but got smashed at the break and it was over.


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## 3rdTimestheCharm (Jan 18, 2015)

@aubie- Yes, you are correct. Good memory. 

I always loved Union Rags, but he had a lot of unlucky trips. I hope that Patch can overcome this bad post. I would love to see him run well.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The KENTUCKY DERBY 

POST HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS

1) Lookin At Lee- Corey Lanerie Steve Asmussen 20-1

2) Thunder Snow- Christophe Soumillon Saeed bin Suroor 20-1

3) Fast And Accurate- Channing Hill Mike Maker 50-1

4) Untrapped- Ricardo Santa Steve Asumussen 30-1

5) Always Dreaming- John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 5-1

6) State Of Honor- Jose Lezcano. Mark Casse. 30-1

7) Girvin- Mike Smith Joe Sharp 15-1

8) Hence- Florent Geroux Steve Asmussen 15-1

9) Irap- Mario Gutierrez Doug O'Neill 201-1

10) Gunnevera- Javier Castellano Antonio Sano 15-1

11) Battle Of Midway- Flavin Pratt Jerry Hollendofer 30-1

12) Sonneteer- Kent Desormeaux Keith Desormeaux 50-1

13) J Boys Echo- Luis Saez Dale Romans 20-1

14) Classic Empire- Julien Leparoux Marke Casse 4-1

15) McCraken- Brian Hemandez Ian Wilkes 5-1

16) Tapwrit- Jose Ortiz Todd Pletcher 20-1

17) Irish War Cry- Rajiv Maragh Graham Motion 6-1

18) Gromley- Victor Espinoza John Shirreffs 15-1

19) Practical Joke- Joel Rosairo Chad Brown 20-1

20) Patch- Tyler Gaffalione John Shirreffs 30-1


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Here is link to viewing information for the Oaks and Derby. I assumed you could view on their website as well, but looks like you can watch by getting the NBC app. Also I read and it says you can view on Facebook and Twitter, if you have that. https://www.kentuckyderby.com/party/watch


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## csimkunas6 (Apr 18, 2010)

This is going to sound silly, but Id love to see Lookin At Lee win the derby! I saw his sire, Lookin at Lucky win the Preakness, and ever since I have had a soft spot for him and his offspring, but with poor Lookin At Lee drawing post position 1 his chances of winning are slim to none! lol


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

I was looking at Lookin At Lee . Has a late kick. I am struggling with what to consider this year. Yes usually the 1 is an automatic cut. The last horse to win from there was Ferdinand in 1989 with Bill Shoemaker.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

I was surprised to see Classic Empire made the morning line favorite. Don't get me wrong, I think he's got loads of potential and didn't "jump off the bandwagon" when he was having issues. I don't think he'll be the favorite Saturday. I can't get on board with Always Dreaming but we'll see...Todd Pletcher is just not my cup of tea.

I think I'm going Irish War Cry- McCraken- Gunnevera - Irap

Thought you'd all like this: Catching up with American Pharoah | Videos | BloodHorse.com
He looks fantastic- his coat is glistening!

ETA: Was Irap really *201-1* on the morning line, or was that a typo??


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Irap is going to be a big price. Not sure about 200-1 . Julien getting off him for Classic Empire is telling to me.

I get what you are saying about Pletcher. But he is a top trainer. And this is going to sound weird but Always Dreaming is the best mover to me in the bunch. Has Johnny V. But I am seeing Bodiemister hanging in the Derby and Preakness, and that worries me. Don't know why the Unbridleds usually have late push. 

Gunnevera I am liking right now.

So many thoughts.


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## BlindHorseEnthusiast4582 (Apr 11, 2016)

I'll be perfectly honest in saying that I don't know enough about these horses to make a choice on who I think will win. I'll have to see how they break to make a guess.

I will be rooting for Patch and Classic Empire (but mostly Patch). The others are good too, I just like those two. I'm waiting to see how Pharaoh's first crop of foals does on the track in a couple years. THAT is what I will be following. Haven't gotten to watch that video yet, but I plan to!


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

This year knowing all about them might not be a bad thing. So wide open.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

aubie said:


> Irap is going to be a big price. Not sure about 200-1 . Julien getting off him for Classic Empire is telling to me.
> 
> I get what you are saying about Pletcher. But he is a top trainer. And this is going to sound weird but Always Dreaming is the best mover to me in the bunch. Has Johnny V. But I am seeing Bodiemister hanging in the Derby and Preakness, and that worries me. Don't know why the Unbridleds usually have late push.
> 
> ...


Yes, Irap was 20-1, which is a little more realistic! Loved this profile of his groom: https://www.americasbestracing.net/...sitivity-integral-kentucky-derby-groom-robles And apparently Irap prefers his stall puffy and carrots to mints. Love the relationship grooms form with their horse and also that we have some of them on this site sharing their stories with us!

Don't get me wrong, Always Dreaming is clearly a special horse. I just have a hard time rooting for one that comes on the scene late, doesn't really have that classic foundation, etc. But no one on Team Always Dreaming asked my opinion! :wink:


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Thank you for that. Very nice article.


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## MerriBelle1 (Apr 19, 2017)

*Stats*

Haven't finished all my stats but just some food for thought. Classic Empire, the Ky bred favorite, is a 2 year old Champion. He will be coming out of post position 14. The last time a horse won out out that position was Carry Back in 1961. He had a foot abcess in the Holy Bull Stakes. Classic Empire has 3 half siblings, Uptown Twirl, a non graded stakes winner, Anytime Magic, who has won what appears to be a minor stakes race, but is usually in claiming races, and Song Girl, who has raced in claiming, str races and allowances. Classic Empire's dam Sambuca Classica started once and was unplaced. Her dam, In Her Glory, started 5 times, with 2 thirds. Sire of Classic Empire, Pioneerof the Nile was 2nd in the Derby and 4th in the Preakness. His sire, Empire Maker was 2nd in the Derby and won the Belmont. His sire, Unbridled, was 4th in the Belmont, 2nd in the Preakness and won the Derby.


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## MerriBelle1 (Apr 19, 2017)

Always Dreaming will be coming out of post position 5. That gate provides more winners than any other.


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## BlindHorseEnthusiast4582 (Apr 11, 2016)

I didn't know Classic Empire and American Pharaoh were half-brothers. That's pretty cool! I was already looking forward to seeing him run, and now I am even more.  

He's starting from the 14th stall I believe. Irish War Cry is in 17, so neither of them has the best starting position. I like the positions Fast and Accurate and Untrapped have. They aren't right on the rail to get boxed in as badly but also aren't having to swing out wide to get by the way Patch and Practical Joke will have to. 

This really should be an interesting race.


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## 6gun Kid (Feb 26, 2013)

I will be watching, have no basis for picking a favorite. Like patch cuz he is the underdog, being one eyed and in the 20th hole. I watch the derby, to drink Mint Julep's..... (just kidding, they are disgusting so I take mine minus the mint and julep....so straight bourbon).


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

aubie said:


> This year knowing all about them might not be a bad thing. So wide open.


I meant not knowing all about them might not be a bad thing.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

6gun Kid said:


> I will be watching, have no basis for picking a favorite. Like patch cuz he is the underdog, being one eyed and in the 20th hole. I watch the derby, to drink Mint Julep's..... (just kidding, they are disgusting so I take mine minus the mint and julep....so straight bourbon).


Amen. Can't stand mint.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The Kentucky Oaks appears to be a little easier to figure out. The (4) Paradise Woods looks to be the standout. The (10) Miss Sky Warrior looks to fill out the exacta. She should love the wet conditions, and could even get home. Maybe a play on her as I think the price on the (4) will be very short.

To use with the top pair I like the (2) (7)(13)(14) and (6) in combinations. I loath putting Kent (6) on my tickets, but although green, his horse has talent, and just the kind of race he gets in there.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

MerriBelle1 said:


> Haven't finished all my stats but just some food for thought. Classic Empire, the Ky bred favorite, is a 2 year old Champion. He will be coming out of post position 14. The last time a horse won out out that position was Carry Back in 1961. He had a foot abcess in the Holy Bull Stakes. Classic Empire has 3 half siblings, Uptown Twirl, a non graded stakes winner, Anytime Magic, who has won what appears to be a minor stakes race, but is usually in claiming races, and Song Girl, who has raced in claiming, str races and allowances. Classic Empire's dam Sambuca Classica started once and was unplaced. Her dam, In Her Glory, started 5 times, with 2 thirds. Sire of Classic Empire, Pioneerof the Nile was 2nd in the Derby and 4th in the Preakness. His sire, Empire Maker was 2nd in the Derby and won the Belmont. His sire, Unbridled, was 4th in the Belmont, 2nd in the Preakness and won the Derby.


Thanks. I struggle at time with history vs. independent try. Especially this year. But using it to cut the (2) Thunder Snow. No UAE winner has even hit the board in the Derby, and the last winner from the 2 was Affirmed. And that he certainly isn't.


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## horseylover1_1 (Feb 13, 2008)

It's Oaks day! Got myself a pink sweater on and a horse scarf. I've never actually tried a mint julep. I don't like non-sweet alcoholic drinks so I don't think I'd care for it. Supposed to rain tomorrow too.. the rain really isn't the worst part of it. It's flooding pretty bad. I haven't turned on the news to see what the track is like but the poor horses will practically be swimming if it doesn't let up soon.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Just who I wanted to hear from for first hand knowledge. I am watching on tv. Track isn't to bad. They even just ran a turf sprint.


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## BlindHorseEnthusiast4582 (Apr 11, 2016)

Where are you guys watching??? I can't find the Oaks anywhere!


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

It's on the NBC Sports Network.

I'm using a few combinations of Paradise Woods- Tequilta- Abel Tasman- Farrell. I don't like Miss Sky Warrior. May be a mistake to leave Salty out. We'll see. Good luck to all and may they all come home safe and sound.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Ugg, got two of my prices up. Had Mike, never leave him off. Just didn't have the horse that split them.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

Yep, I missed all that. Why do riders on favorites get sucked into a pace like that??

Did like Abel Tasman but only used her in 3rd/4th. And not in my Oaks/Derby double. And this is exactly why I'm a $2 bettor!


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## BlindHorseEnthusiast4582 (Apr 11, 2016)

Just watched the replay video. Nice race, but track is a mess.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

It is sloppy. And it makes a difference in outcomes. Some like it, some don't.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

egrogan said:


> Yep, I missed all that. Why do riders on favorites get sucked into a pace like that??
> 
> Did like Abel Tasman but only used her in 3rd/4th. And not in my Oaks/Derby double. And this is exactly why I'm a $2 bettor!


Puzzled me as well. Smokin early fractions.


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## MerriBelle1 (Apr 19, 2017)

Patch is not the first horse to run with one eye in the Derby. Others: there were two others: Gr. 3 stakes winner, Pollard's Vison--Named for John "Red" Pollard, the rider of Seabiscuit (who beat Triple Crown Winner War Admiral). Seabiscuit was a grandson of the champion Man o'War and War Admiral was the son of Man o'War. Pollards Vision was 17th in the 2004 Ky Derby. The second horse as Cassaleria, a Gr 1 SW, who finished 13th in the KY Derby in 1982 and owned by 20/20 Stables.


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## MerriBelle1 (Apr 19, 2017)

Here's a bit of info: No horse has won the Ky. Derby from Post position 17., but one horse did get second place and two other horses got third. From post position two, usually produces the most 3rd place winners. I forgot--one other horse that had one eye ran in the Derby--the grey horse, Storm In May, who finished 16th in the field of 20 in 2007. Patch seems to be the underdog favorite. It appears his eye had had an ulcer (I am assuming it was a corneal ulcer--ulcerative keratitis.) that didn't heal and ended up getting removed. For those of you who have had contacts and had a corneal abrasion, it's painful, so I know this horse had to be in some pain. It can be caused by a blade of grass, hay, a twig from a tree or any number of things. Patch won his Maiden and came in 2nd in the LA Derby. I think he will run close to Girvin and Thunder Snow will be ahead of him. Royal Mo and Master Plan had a chance to get in the Derby if anyone had scratched by 9AM Friday.


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## BlindHorseEnthusiast4582 (Apr 11, 2016)

aubie said:


> It is sloppy. And it makes a difference in outcomes. Some like it, some don't.


I get the feeling that Patch will like the muddy track, or at least not be worried too much about it. I know a lot of horses don't like it because of all the mud flying into their faces, but given that he's already blind on the side all the other horses are, I don't think he'll mind as much. Just a thought, I may be total off.

How do you guys think Classic Empire and the others will handle the mud? Like aubie said that's the big game changer now.


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## 3rdTimestheCharm (Jan 18, 2015)

I think Classic Empire will be fine as he broke his maiden at Churchill in the slop. If Irish War Cry had run better in the Foundation of Youth, I would say that I would expect him to be fine (from what I've seen, Curlins do fine on an off track) but he did not run well in that race, so we shall see. 

I'm very excited to see how this race plays out.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Happy Derby Day everyone. I am excited to.


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## horseylover1_1 (Feb 13, 2008)

Happy Derby day! 

It's supposed to clear by race time (6:46 ET), but yes the track will still be muddy. So I think that really affects the odds. It's on every news station here. I do wish I could be at the track today.

Classic Empire is the richest Derby starter ever w/ over 2 million in winnings. Gunnevera was purchased for only $16,000 and has won over 1.1 million. Lots of cool facts on the website.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

I like Gunnevera. I have him as a user in my selections.


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## horseylover1_1 (Feb 13, 2008)

I like Fast and Accurate because of his color. Haha. Not a very good reason to root for a horse, but hey, everyone likes a good looking horse.

Maximus Beauty won the opening maiden race. I think they said his owner has a horse in the derby as well.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Love your posts and information. Unfortunately I have Fast and Accurate on my cut list. Didn't like his works.


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## horseylover1_1 (Feb 13, 2008)

Likewise, @aubie ! Too bad we weren't closer we could have a derby party together. Haha.

So call me dumb but I just found out American Pharaoh won the Breeder's Cup. For some reason I thought they didn't enter him but retired him before that. He truly is an amazing horse. I wonder if there will be a movie made about him.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

horseylover1_1 said:


> Likewise, @aubie ! Too bad we weren't closer we could have a derby party together. Haha.
> 
> So call me dumb but I just found out American Pharaoh won the Breeder's Cup. For some reason I thought they didn't enter him but retired him before that. He truly is an amazing horse. I wonder if there will be a movie made about him.


Would love that. I am doing tailgate food like its a ballgame right now. Pharoah did win the Breeders Cup. It was a goal. He was the first Triple Crown winner to do that. To be fair, the Breeders Cup wasn't invented and available to the others. He is an amazing horse, such a great mover. As for movie I hope so. Public attention like that is good for the sport.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Track is sloppy!


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Wow- Patch has been bet in half. Down to 15-1.


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## Celeste (Jul 3, 2011)

Subbing


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## EliRose (Aug 12, 2012)

I will take Classic Empire 8-1 all day long.


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## MerriBelle1 (Apr 19, 2017)

Classic Empire has dropped from being the favorite.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Although I like Always dreaming, I agree Classic Empire has way higher odds than he should. Definitely using him. And with all the doubt with Girvin, I'm still using him. Just can't leave Mike off.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Gotta brag cause I have been dinking and dunking on my selections all day. Had the exacta and trifecta in the 9th. Mike Smith brought home a 15-1 shot. No way I am leaving him off Derby selections.


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## MerriBelle1 (Apr 19, 2017)

Lookin At Lee--I don't see winning the Derby. Sorry. His record 9 2--2--2 and a 4th, a 5th, and a 6th. It appears he does better at the shorter distance under a mile. He has no siblings. His sire was the Eclipse 2 and 3 year old male champion. He was a Preakness winner. He placed 6th from post 11 in the Ky. Derby. Lookin At Lee has 4 siblings who haven't done anything real exciting. They have all won but mostly minor races. I know one won a stakes race. I don't see him as last but maybe somewhere in the middle. I hope he does better than the middle. He may be a late bloomer.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Love the information.


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## MerriBelle1 (Apr 19, 2017)

Okay--looks like the Derby will run in the slop.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

It is really coming down. I am so okay with it now. Just hit a 118 dollar exacta in race 10 to go along with the 160 exacta and 400 trifecta in race 9. To be honest I had limousine liberal in selections, but didn't see him getting all of it.


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## MerriBelle1 (Apr 19, 2017)

This slop will not be a great thing for Garvin and his quarter crack which is at the coronary band (bad!). Even tho it's sealed, I hope they let him rest for the rest of the year so his hoof can grow out. I think Mike Smith is a great jockey and will do well on him, regardless. Garvin has a 1/2 sibling who is a G3 SW. IF Garvin's foot holds out, he MIGHT be among the first 6 horses at the wire. If it causes some pain, he may be further back.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Ok they have to take next race off the turf.


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## Celeste (Jul 3, 2011)

Can you watch the derby live on the internet? If so, what is the address?


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## EliRose (Aug 12, 2012)

2000 Guineas flattered Thunder Snow deeply.

FWIW breeding wise - a minor stakes win (and a third in a G1 behind two future stars, particularly the wonderful Rosalind) are nice features on a sales page. Lookin at Lee's dam was also a decent stakes winner, from a good old Claiborne family. I don't like him to win the Derby, but I thought I should refute the implication that his family (referring to the female family whenever I talk about family) hasn't done much.


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## EliRose (Aug 12, 2012)

Celeste said:


> Can you watch the derby live on the internet? If so, what is the address?


It's livestreamed on NBC Sports.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

MerriBelle1 said:


> This slop will not be a great thing for Garvin and his quarter crack which is at the coronary band (bad!). Even tho it's sealed, I hope they let him rest for the rest of the year so his hoof can grow out. I think Mike Smith is a great jockey and will do well on him, regardless. Garvin has a 1/2 sibling who is a G3 SW. IF Garvin's foot holds out, he MIGHT be among the first 6 horses at the wire. If it causes some pain, he may be further back.


I know Mike will do right by the horse. I admit some of my using him is heart handicapping even though I know LA downs runners don't fair well in Derby. I like Mike. Big fan of Rosie to. Nice to hear she exercises him.


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## horseylover1_1 (Feb 13, 2008)

Little over an hour away! Had coffee with the husband, went grocery shopping (got a derby shirt...), saw my filly, now waiting on the race while cooking dinner.


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## BlindHorseEnthusiast4582 (Apr 11, 2016)

Divisidero just pulled off a nice run on the turf! First to last within the last couple furlongs. That's the first race I've gotten to see today, so yeah, I'm kinda late.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

Nice, my first bet of the day and I had Oscar Nominated where he finished. Thought he was surprisingly overlooked here. I do like Divisdero- had a fun superfecta but left Beach Patrol out of it- should have known better than to leave Chad Brown off.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Wow the water.


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## BlindHorseEnthusiast4582 (Apr 11, 2016)

aubie said:


> Wow the water.


Yeah, they're going to be swimming.. :-|


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## horseylover1_1 (Feb 13, 2008)

Added a poll. A little late in the day, but better late than never I guess!


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Here are my selections 

THANK YOU. Ok here we go

Always Dreaming- Tons of talent, best mover i have seen of theses
Classic Empire- Maybe the most talented
McCracken- Best works leading up to me
Gunnevera- Just like this horse
Girven- staying with Mike

Tapwrit and Patch with those in small wheels


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## horseylover1_1 (Feb 13, 2008)

Less than 15 mins! 

I think Classic Empire will win, but I hope Patch does.


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## EliRose (Aug 12, 2012)

IWC, Thunder Snow, Classic Empire, Gunnevera superfecta box, then all of those singled as well.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

Aubie, you're putting down smart money. I think this is going to be a year with something out of the clouds so I'm going a little off the wall with my $10 pot. :smile:

My tri: 10 (Gunnevera) -18 (Gormley) -19 (Practical Joke)
And concentrating some show money on 9 (Irap), 2 (Thunder Snow), 16 (Tapwrit)

And in this universe, my "safe" exacta is Irish War Cry-Gunnevera

Come home safe all!


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## EliRose (Aug 12, 2012)

Just put a $2 down on Patch because why not, everyone else is doing it lol


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

About the thank you in my selections post. Didn't mean for that to be there. I coped and pasted from another board I post on to save time.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

Alright, I stand corrected. He is actually that good.

Thunder Snow...ok?? Just freaked out when he hit that wet track or something worse??


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## MerriBelle1 (Apr 19, 2017)

*Always Dreaming Wins!!!*

I knew at the last minute this horse was going to win and he did!!!


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## EliRose (Aug 12, 2012)

Lol Lookin at Lee


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## LoveGus (Oct 4, 2016)

What happened to Thunder Snow? 
That honestly didn't look good 

Happy for the favorite was hoping Patch would've finished in the money but he didn't


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

I don't know, but the way he was bucking with all 4 off the ground made me think he just despised that mud. But who knows, they cut away quickly and just said he had been eased.


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## EliRose (Aug 12, 2012)

He probably spooked at the reflection. Ugh, I thought they'd worked his spooky greenness out.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Brilliant ride by Johhny. I thought Always Dreaming was the best mover, but absolutely could not see the two others that came with him to round out the ticket. Still, a great race. They always are.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

All reports are he walked back to the barn on his own


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Upon future review, looks like IWC, Classic Empire, and McCracken had a bump up after the break.


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## horseylover1_1 (Feb 13, 2008)

Good job Always Dreaming! It was a very good race. Poor Thunder Snow. He must not have cared for the mud. Thankfully he's OK, not injured.

May just have another Triple Crown winner!


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## EliRose (Aug 12, 2012)

That was a horrible mugging. Casse didn't like the rail and told Julien to keep away, and he got smushed. It is amazing that he rallied for 4th - just makes me more excited for the rest of his season.

EDIT: Scratch, sorry Casse said the opposite apparently.


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## MerriBelle1 (Apr 19, 2017)

Like the announcer said--they don't in the desert! I felt so bad for Thunder Snow. Love the name. That poor jockey!! Glad everyone is okay.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

What a day. Gonna be a fun two weeks. 

Hats off to NBC they had great coverage. No clown show Johnny and Tara this year. The other guy dressed funny did ok. 

Now it's wait and see who goes to the Preakness. And most importantly what the weather will be.


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## horseylover1_1 (Feb 13, 2008)

I'm disappointed it's over already.


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## BlindHorseEnthusiast4582 (Apr 11, 2016)

I was surprised to see him win it honestly.


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## Celeste (Jul 3, 2011)

He won it honestly and then he won it some more. He left them all in a splash of mud. He ran a great race.


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## horseluvr2524 (Sep 17, 2013)

Of course, I FORGOT it was Derby day and only caught up just now (not the first time that's happened either. Funny, because I always thought it was cool that the derby is in my birthday month, and then I forget about it).

Boy was that track slick! I would not want to be riding on that. Always Dreaming ran a great race. I always love seeing a horse pull lengths away from the herd. Who knows, maybe we will have another TC winner this year?

Did feel bad for that horse and jockey having the rough start there. Was that horse Thunder Snow? I don't keep in the know on racing, I just try to remember to watch the Derby every year and keep my eyes open for a TC winner.

Just have to mention, I'll never forget "I'll Have Another" and the story behind his name! lol!


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Record handle yesterday for the Kentucky Derby and all of Derby week. Big crowd, but not a record. Weather probably the factor there.

Always Dreaming exited the race in good order, and will ship Monday or Tuesday to Plimlico. Weather probably the main factor there. No hurry so ship on a clear day.

Looking At Lee- also exited the race well and " very probable " for Preakness according to trainer Steve Asmussen 

No decision as of now from 3rd place finisher Battle of Midway. 

Others not as fortunate. That collision had more effects than just placement.

Classic Empire has some small cuts and swelling in right eye. How that goes determines next move.

McCraken is a no go for Preakness. Some sort of puncture wound. Looks to return later in summer.

Royal Mo will be the first known new shooter in Preakness. Gary Stevens will be in the irons.

And looking way ahead. American Pharoahs first foal, a colt, has been named. Look for First Pharoah in Derby 2020.


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## boots (Jan 16, 2012)

horseluvr2524 said:


> Boy was that track slick! I would not want to be riding on that.


The track at Churchill is an engineering marvel.

It is designed, layering different products, to encourage some of the water to rise to the top while most drains away effectively. While there is a thin film of water on top, the footing is firm. 

Gone are the days when multiple horses wiped out on the last turn on slippery clay tracks. Though those do still exist in some backwoods, unregulated tracks.


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## waresbear (Jun 18, 2011)

I didn't pick the winner, but the preshow coverage was biased. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

How so?


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## waresbear (Jun 18, 2011)

They played up the other trainers and horses better, oh well, not like I had money on my pick.....Thunder Snow.


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## 3rdTimestheCharm (Jan 18, 2015)

It was an exciting race!

I truly did like Always Dreaming's Florida Derby performance, but wasn't a fan of how he was training this past week, so I passed on him in the Derby. I thought he'd be too aggressive during the race, but I'm glad he proved me wrong! I'm usually good about not getting ahead of things, but I can see the possibility of him winning the Triple Crown. 

I do wish that McCraken and Classic Empire could have gotten a cleaner trip (and that Patch would've placed higher), but I look forward to seeing them in the future.


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## EliRose (Aug 12, 2012)

They covered the owners and trainers who were willing to be interviewed and who have the best stories. 

Of course the coverage is biased, it _is_ racing after all


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

I didn't really notice. I was more concerned with the overall positivity and presenting racing in a good light. Hasn't always been the case with them.


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## EliRose (Aug 12, 2012)

I agree. I loved the coverage of Sano, such a crazy story.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

And it's less time spent on nonsense. I was ok with their fashion coverage this year. Not my thing obviously, but I get. And I like the segment every year with Bobby Flay. Could do with less Bob Costas. But to be fair he toned down the drivel and agenda this year. One year he started up on gun control.


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## horseylover1_1 (Feb 13, 2008)

aubie said:


> And looking way ahead. American Pharoahs first foal, a colt, has been named. Look for First Pharoah in Derby 2020.


Very excited about this. Ever since Pharaoh won the TC I have had a lot of interest in him. A friend of mine had a colt born a few days after he won the TC and named him Pharaoh. It'll be exciting to see his offspring run.

Discussion question.. say you were given the choice of getting an American Pharaoh baby out of an exceptional mare OR a full brother/sister to American Pharaoh. Which would you choose and why? 

The day after Derby is actually pretty big here, people go to brunches and stuff to celebrate post-Derby before going back to work on Monday.


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## EliRose (Aug 12, 2012)

Well his only full sibling to race so far is G1 placed and his only other sibling to race is the second top money-earner for his sire, soooooo  Littleprincessemma is an exceptional broodmare.

We have no idea what his foals will be like on the track.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

That's an interesting question. On one hand he had and will have a full book so lots of horses out there by him, so thinking full sibling would be the way to go. 

Agree about Litteprincessmama 

We don't know what his will look like on the track. And it could very well be a deal similar to Secretariat. He didn't reproduce himself, but his daughters passed greatness on. Little princessmamma got some of it.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Take this for what it's worth as I read it on a Louisville sports board, But saw where Irish War Cry is a no go for Preakness. Will look for more information in morning news. 

But did just see in Bloodhorse that TV viewers/ ratings where up 12 percent from last year. That is huge.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/221474/ky-derby-tv-overnight-up-12-from-2016


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Irish War Cry's trainer said that its " unlikely " he will go to the Preakness, and that he didn't see the point in going.

3rd place finisher Battle of Midway will not be going, and will head back to California. 

Pletcher reported that Patch came out of the race just fine, but no plans as of yet other than to return to New York.


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## horseylover1_1 (Feb 13, 2008)

aubie said:


> That's an interesting question. On one hand he had and will have a full book so lots of horses out there by him, so thinking full sibling would be the way to go.
> 
> Agree about Litteprincessmama
> 
> We don't know what his will look like on the track. And it could very well be a deal similar to Secretariat. He didn't reproduce himself, but his daughters passed greatness on. Little princessmamma got some of it.


How bad is it that I had no idea American Pharaoh was related to Secretariat? 

Learning lots of new stuff in this thread.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

On the bottom. You see Stormcat. He is out of his daughter Terlingua.


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## EliRose (Aug 12, 2012)

More than half (probably waaaay more than that) of TBs racing today are Secretariat descendants, FWIW.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

@horseylover1_1 I know it early, but whenever you want to start the Preakness thread.


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