# 2021 Kentucky Derby



## kewpalace (Jul 17, 2013)

Thanks for starting this @aubie. Looking forward to everyone's input!


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## lb27312 (Aug 25, 2018)

Yep Thanks @aubie! I don't have any input but enjoy hearing about it..


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## boots (Jan 16, 2012)

Thanks, Aubie! 

I can't be there, but I think a few of us are going to take over a local pub, dust off our best hats, and throw a party this year.


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## JCnGrace (Apr 28, 2013)

Looking forward to reading what you have to say about it.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

Hi @aubie- I've lost track of time. Is this the first year the American Pharaoh kids are 3 year olds?


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Yes @egrogan . The thing that I have notice they did really well on the grass. Now some could be that they are so talented that early on they could just out class their rivals.

Also speaking of him, He has a half brother coming on the scene, Triple Tap. By Tapit out of Littleprincesmomma. Will look for information.

Today I am going to get the points standing up, a little information on the point standings for newer folks, and hopefully a nice chart on what's upcoming so everyone can bee on the same page.

Thanks everyone for the interest. Yes I am into racing. But also this is my way to contribute horse related stuff to the board. While I enjoy my random threads here in off topic, it's my form of horse talk.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Here is Triple Taps debut in MSW. Very nicely done, hand ride.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Here is the official points standings. Sorry for just a link. If I can find a chart that I can copy and paste , will do so. I rather have it where we can all so and talk about without having to click off and on.









Derby Full Leaderboard


Derby Full Leaderboard #KYDerby




www.kentuckyderby.com


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

aubie said:


> Here is Triple Taps debut in MSW. Very nicely done, hand ride.


Very nice! I've lost track of the Zayat saga- did they end up keeping their horses or liquidating? Clearly this horse isn't racing in their colors.

Thanks for the leaderboard link. I haven't paid attention to any of the preps this year. I saw that Bloodhorse hired someone else to do the Derby Dozen and I just couldn't get excited about following it written by anyone but Steve Haskin. Change is hard


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

I hear you about Steve. Miss all his articles. I haven't seen him writing anything anywhere else. 

I have not seen that much about the Zayat story either lately. I know they are being sued all over the place and have a court appointed person handling the assists. 

I have not followed the preps as much this year as years past. Partly because I know I can catch up/watch videos. Mostly because of day to day racing.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Only Derby points race this weekend is in Japan. Which gives me a little more time to find a good chart of upcoming ones. I will also post video after each one if you can't watch, and we can compare races down the road for the main event picking


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

I lied. Louisiana Derby this weekend. Will get info up.


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## kewpalace (Jul 17, 2013)

aubie said:


> I will also post video after each one if you can't watch, and we can compare races down the road for the main event picking


Awesome, thanks @aubie.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Unfortunately the Louisiana Derby will be at Fair Grounds, which is a CDI track. Viewing options will be limited, will try to find video for it.

Now is a good time to remind folks if you have satellite tv providers, there is a good chance you already get TVG, so check your guide. They usually have four or five tracks going at a time.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)




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## kewpalace (Jul 17, 2013)

So @aubie, any commentary/critique on the Louisana Derby? Would love to hear your insights ...


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

I thought it was a nice effort by Hot Rod Charlie. Took them all the way around. Early fractions were good. It's easy to get excited about a horse as the more serious points races start. But we will see faster in the Florida Serby this weekend, and horses come out of the Louisiana Derby have not faired well overall in the Kentucky Derby.

Will try to get information up on Florida Derby up soon.


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## kewpalace (Jul 17, 2013)

Thanks @aubie. I thought it was a good effort; a little surprising that no one really challenged him much. Looking forward to the FL Derby this weekend.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The Florida Derby will be this Saturday. Coverage starts @ 6:00pm est. NBC Sports will have it. Will check on availability on their website. And if Gulfstream has an app you can download.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Here is the Florida Derby.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

So what did we learn from the Florida Derby. Honestly not a lot for me. No surprise Pletcher wins another Florida Derby. I was looking for Shugs Greatest Honour to do a little better. He is not a count out for me yet. A deep closer has a hard time at Gulfstream, the most speed biased track in the country.


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## kewpalace (Jul 17, 2013)

I was surprised at Soup & Sandwich ... love the name. Wasn't expecting that much from him, but he hung in there. Was surprised Greatest Honour did not do better either; the pre-race commentary basically had him locked in for the win. Almost a sure sign he would NOT win, LOL.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

It was over for him at the break. You just can't be that far back early there. Over 90% of the wins there on the lead or no more than 2 off it


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Information about big weekend.









Essential Quality Draws Post 4 for Blue Grass Stakes


Godolphin's homebred champion is the 3-5 morning-line favorite at the track where he's already won two grade 1 stakes. He will be ridden by Luis Saez.




www.bloodhorse.com


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

For His Birthday today.









Secretariat


A commemoration of the life of Secretariat.




www.bloodhorse.com


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

NBC Sports will have coverage of all three big events today.The Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes and Santa Anita starting at 5:30 est.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The Wood





The Bluegrass 





Santa Anita Derby


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Thoughts will go one by one during the day . Starting with the Wood. Yes very exciting. Huge upset. And here's one of the things we will do in prep for Derby day is look at all these races and see how they figure into the big one. And in the Wood what sticks out the most when getting past the excitement is the fractions.

This was slow. Crawling even. It's what set up the big finish. 50 at the half isn't good at all, and certainly won't be pace at the Derby. 1:14 and change for 3/4 isn't not only stakes time, it's not great for Nickel claimers at Delta Downs on a Tuesday night. 

Not taking away from Bourbonic. But in watching coverage, or listening to analysts talk you will hear stuff like race fell apart, or a horse needs the race to fall apart. That's what happened here.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The Bluegrass- much better and much more honest fractions. For those that might be newer, the difference between:50 and change in wood, to :48 and change in Bluegrass may not seem like much. For reference 1 second is roughly 5 lengths. 

But looking deeper, what you see is this bunch held their speed and picked it up. The first bunch was giving from the opening quarter all the way around. 

Yes Essential Quality will have to go on the ticket for the Derby. Will probably be post time favorite. There are some things to like. He is by Tapit. Distance will never be a problem. With Mr Prospector on bottom, speed won't be either. The downside is Liuis Siaz is up.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Santa Anita Derby- Now that's some fractions! Especially at Santa Anita which is a little deeper track. That was impressive.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

re: Bourbonic. It seems like every year, the NY preps are getting less and less relevant. Growing up in NY, I don't remember it being that way. The Wood was a real "sending" race. Is it just that the big Derby trainers focus on CA and LA/FL preps more now? I am failing on my trivia, but I can't think of the last horse to win the Derby after winning the Wood. Funny Cide?

I guess it makes me sad that the NY circuit (Saratoga excluded I guess- though the changes to the Saratoga meet haven't been kind to downstate meets) has really lost its luster. I'm not very good with change 

Editing my own post because I was curious: Funny Cide didn't actually win the Wood, Empire Maker did. So, it was a race that mattered in that year!

Edited again after a visit to trusty Wikipedia, and a reminder that the Wood has produced some pretty heavy hitters, even in the recent past. Maybe they don't all go on to impact the KD, but they do seem to be horses that make a name for themselves over time.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

It certainly seems that way and has that feel. I guess just thinking off the top of my head a few reasons more of opinion than fact.

Last few years we have had 2 Triple,Crown Winners that never even sniffed New York. 

When Barbaro win the Florida Derby and then went on to win the Kentucky there was a huge focus on it. Big discussion about the 5 weeks out instead of traditional 4. 

The points system, as opposed to graded earnings meant that you didn't have to travel to New York. So top horse don't have to pile in the Wood. Look at the Bluegrass, it used to be a last ditch effort to get in Derby. Now it's a destination with benefit of an hour away van ride. 

The point system has had some benefits. By spreading it out a little more, more tracks get a boost which is good,for the sport.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

Never even thought about how the points system changed things, but that makes perfect sense!


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

And Pletcher single handlly played a part. He takes his best horses, Johnny and Javy, and now the Ortiz boys to Gulfstream for the winter.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

Yep, that’s definitely what I was thinking. He blazed the trail out of FL, and then of course Baffert showed an alternative route.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Also telling about the Wood, Bourbonic speed figure came back an 89. That's not going to be near enough for the Kentucky Derby


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Last big on is the Arkansas Derby this weekend. It's always been a big prep as it's said to have the most similar surface to Churchill. And for a while now Baffert brings some of his over.

We will see how this goes. This hy has a different feel. While several nice horses, no wow horse. Doesn't mean they won't become that. Gunrunner didn't win his year. Going to be fun to try to figure this one out.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

News this morning.

The Daily Racing Form reported Greatest Honour will get 60 days off. Trainer Shug McGaughey told the Daily Racing Form he wasn’t happy with the way the horse came out of the March 27 Florida Derby,


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)




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## JCnGrace (Apr 28, 2013)

Thanks for posting that @aubie , I had totally spaced the race today.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Green, but wow.


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## phantomhorse13 (Feb 18, 2011)

Coming into this late, but I have to say "Soup and Sandwich" is one of my favorite names ever. That is generally how I pick for races, so gonna hope he makes it to the Derby!


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

He has enough points to be in the top 20. So he is in if they want to go/ everything goes well with him. That's where we are now. Waiting to see what decisions are made. Some may opt out. Sometimes it's just not in the horses best interest. Like above with Shugs horse. Just wasn't liking what he was seeing.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Over the years I have posted various videos leading up to it. Most have probably seen then by now, but we do have some new posters. Anything you want to see, let me know.

Also any questions for those that may not be to familiar with racing.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

My favorite Derby memory. Not a Triple Crown winners or even Secretariat himself.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

A classic! I was also thinking about Winning Colors this week. What a group of three year olds that year.





Edited to add this remembrance of Winning Colors: I had never heard the story about the people from her stable getting in a Derby Futures wager on her. I wonder how many times that works out??


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

Here's one more article worth reading: Where Are They Now: 27 Years of Kentucky Derby winners

Fun fact, Go For Gin is the oldest living Derby winner and retired to the Kentucky Horse Park. He's currently 30 years old.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

I had never heard that. I know some that worked for Baffert got 300/1 on Justify because he wasn't even on the books list in Vegas. I think before even his allowance win.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Point Given is also there. I would love to go.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Dream Shake, who was third in the Santa Anita Derby, will bypass the Kentucky Derby and run instead in the Pat Day Mile on May 1 at Churchill Downs. The Bob Baffert-trained Hozier, who was sixth in the Arkansas Derby, also backed out of contention for the Kentucky Derby.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

A little bit on Soup and Sandwich-

*HELIUM, SOUP AND SANDWICH* – D J Stable's Helium and Live Oak Plantation's homebred Soup and Sandwich both came out of their final Derby works Friday in fine order and had a very light Saturday morning, according to trainer Mark Casse's assistant David Carroll.

“We were very happy with both of them in their works,” Carroll said. “They had a walk day today and a light jog up the road to make sure everything is OK and they'll go back to the track tomorrow to gallop. They'll school in the paddock Tuesday, and possibly once more, depending on their behavior. We got the works behind us, with the weather and all, so we'll just hope for some luck at the draw (Tuesday) and go from there.”


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## phantomhorse13 (Feb 18, 2011)

Soup and Sandwich might wind up last, but I will be cheering for him all the way!


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)




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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

*Career Earnings:* $203,875​


INTO MISCHIEF (USA)
b. 2005HARLAN'S HOLIDAY (USA)
b. 1999HARLAN (USA)
dkb/br. 1989STORM CAT (USA)
dkb/br. 1983STORM BIRD (CAN)b. 1978TERLINGUA (USA)ch. 1976 ***COUNTRY ROMANCE (CAN)
ch. 1976HALO (USA)blk. 1969 [BC]SWEET ROMANCE (USA)b. 1968CHRISTMAS IN AIKEN (USA)
b. 1992AFFIRMED (USA)
ch. 1975EXCLUSIVE NATIVE (USA)ch. 1965 [C]WONT TELL YOU (USA)b. 1962 ***DOWAGER (USA)
dkb/br. 1980HONEST PLEASURE (USA)dkb/br. 1973PRINCESSNESIAN (USA)b. 1964LESLIE'S LADY (USA)
b. 1996TRICKY CREEK (USA)
br. 1986CLEVER TRICK (USA)
br. 1976ICECAPADE (USA)gr. 1969 [BC]KANKAKEE MISS (USA)blk. 1967BATTLE CREEK GIRL (USA)
b. 1977HIS MAJESTY (USA)b. 1968 [C]FAR BEYOND (USA)b. 1972 ***CRYSTAL LADY (CAN)
b. 1990STOP THE MUSIC (USA)
b. 1970HAIL TO REASON (USA)br. 1958 [C]BEBOPPER (USA)b. 1962 ***ONE LAST BIRD (USA)
ch. 1980ONE FOR ALL (USA)b. 1966LAST BIRD (USA)ch. 1973SOUPER SCOOP (USA)
gr/r. 2011TAPIT (USA)
gr/r. 2001PULPIT (USA)
b. 1994 [IC]A.P. INDY (USA)
dkb/br. 1989 [IC]SEATTLE SLEW (USA)br. 1974 [BC]WEEKEND SURPRISE (USA)b. 1980 ***PREACH (USA)
b. 1989MR. PROSPECTOR (USA)b. 1970 [BC]NARRATE (USA)br. 1980 ***TAP YOUR HEELS (USA)
gr. 1996UNBRIDLED (USA)
b. 1987 [BI]FAPPIANO (USA)b. 1977 [IC]GANA FACIL (USA)ch. 1981RUBY SLIPPERS (USA)***
gr. 1982NIJINSKY (CAN)b. 1967 [CS]MOON GLITTER (USA)gr. 1972 ***SCOOP (USA)
dkb/br. 1998GONE WEST (USA)
br. 1984 [IC]MR. PROSPECTOR (USA)
b. 1970 [BC]RAISE A NATIVE (USA)ch. 1961
*

[TR]
[TD]GOLD DIGGER (USA)[/TD]
[TD]b. 1962 *[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SECRETTAME (USA)
ch. 1978[/TD]
[TD]SECRETARIAT (USA)[/TD]
[TD]ch. 1970 [IC][/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TAMERETT (USA)[/TD]
[TD]dkb/br. 1962 *[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TIL FORBID (USA)
ch. 1988[/TD]
[TD]TEMPERENCE HILL (USA)
b. 1977[/TD]
[TD]STOP THE MUSIC (USA)[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]b. 1970 [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SISTER SHANNON (USA)[/TD]
[TD]b. 1965 *[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]WHITE JASMINE (USA)*
ch. 1977[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]*


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Ok that didn't turn out like I wanted. Here is the link that is easier to read. 




__





Soup And Sandwich Horse Pedigree






www.pedigreequery.com





He has every right to be good. That's a very nice pedigree. Filled with Hall of farmers and triple crown winners. And his sire is smoking hot right now.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Any other horse that someone is interested in, let me know for a little deeper dive.


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## lb27312 (Aug 25, 2018)

Wow on the Soup and Sandwich breeze.... he was out of control at the beginning but then got down to business... good rider...


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The Oaks is being drawn now, will post as soon as I can


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Some general information 





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Loading…






www.yahoo.com


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Kentucky Oaks
Post time: 5:51 p.m. Friday at Churchill Downs. Purse: $1.25 million. Grade: 1. Distance: 1 1/8 miles. TV: NBC Sports Network. 

Post, horse, trainer, jockey, odds

1. Pauline's Pearl, Steve Asmussen, Ricardo Santana Jr., 20-1

2. Maracuja, Rob Atras, Kendrick Carmouche, 20-1

3. Clairiere, Steve Asmussen, Tyler Gaffalione, 5-1

4. Crazy Beautiful, Kenny McPeek, Jose Ortiz, 15-1

5. Pass the Champagne, George Weaver, Javier Castellano, 15-1

6. Travel Column, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 3-1

7. Ava's Grace, Robertino Diodoro, David Cohen, 50-1

8. Moraz, Michael McCarthy, Flavien Prat, 30-1

9. Coach, Brad Cox, Luis Saez, 50-1

10. Malathaat, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 5-2

11. Will's Secret, Dallas Stewart, Jon Court, 30-1

12. Search Results, Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz Jr., 3-1

13. Competitive Speed, Javier Gonzalez, Chris Landeros, 50-1


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Poor Soup and Sandwich, got post 19

Post position, horse, trainer, jockey, morning-line odds 


1. Known Agenda, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr., 6-1

2. Like the King, Wesley Ward, Drayden Van ****, 50-1

3. Brooklyn Strong, Daniel Velazquez, Umberto Rispoli, 50-1

4. Keepmeinmind, Robertino Diodoro, David Cohen, 50-1

5. Sainthood, Todd Pletcher, Corey Lanerie, 50-1

6. O Besos, Greg Foley, Marcelino Pedroza, 20-1

7. Mandaloun, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 15-1

8. Medina Spirit, Bob Baffert, John Velazquez, 15-1

9. Hot Rod Charlie, Doug O'Neill, Flavien Prat, 8-1

10. Midnight Bourbon, Steve Asmussen, Mike Smith, 20-1

11. Dynamic One, Todd Pletcher, Jose Ortiz, 20-1

12. Helium, Mark Casse, Julien Leparoux, 50-1

13. Hidden Stash, Vicki Oliver, Rafael Bejarano, 50-1

14. Essential Quality, Brad Cox, Luis Saez, 2-1

15. Rock Your World, John Sadler, Joel Rosario, 5-1

16. King Fury, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 20-1

17. Highly Motivated, Chad Brown, Javier Castellano, 10-1

18. Super Stock, Steve Asmussen, Ricardo Santana Jr., 30-1

19. Soup and Sandwich, Mark Casse, Tyler Gaffalione, 30-1

20. Bourbonic, Todd Pletcher, Kendrick Carmouche, 30-1


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## phantomhorse13 (Feb 18, 2011)

aubie said:


> Poor Soup and Sandwich, got post 19


Well if he starts in the Derby like he did in that breeze, the jockey may be glad to have that outside post to keep from getting in trouble clipping heels, etc.

What are your predictions for the Oaks? How about your Derby pick(s)? And I would love to hear why.


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## lb27312 (Aug 25, 2018)

Thanks @aubie for posting the post position! I've been watching the arrivals of the horses on youtube... really cool!


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

I am still working on selections. Usually what I do is after the draw, cut the field in half and then later cut that 10 down to 5 users. I already know Essential Quality will be the horse that will be key for wheels.

Already thinking the 16 King Fury will this years "wise guy" horse. That rarely works out. 

As for Soup and Sandwich, if he doesn't hit the board, I see skip Preakness and get ready for Belmont.

Will have Oaks up before Friday as well.


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## JCnGrace (Apr 28, 2013)

Well I always pick one long shot to root for and I think I'll go with Hidden Stash since 1) he's my favorite color 2) I like his name and 3) I'd like to see a female trainer do good.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Kentucky Oaks thoughts and selections. 

The 7 should break in top and try to take them all the way around. To far against to touch here. The 10 is probably likely winner, although the top 3 in here have been trading some. That's the 3 and 6 along with her. The 12 is stepping up, but a perfect 3 for 3. The 1 is interesting. A Tapit and half to Derby winner Always Dreaming.

The longshot across the board play will be the 1. If wanting to take a bigger shot, the 11. Could also include underneath in wheels.

So the selections are 1,3,6,10, 12 for boxes and wheels. 10 as the key.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

If anyone is interested in the wagering, ticket construction (which is what the money side of it is All about) or anything related to that other than the just enjoyment of it please let me know


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Look at this monster.


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## CaliforniaDreaming (May 8, 2011)

I’m pulling for Hot Rod Charlie. Because I know the connections and all.

Keep an eye out for Mucho Macho Mama in the first on the Oaks undercard. #6. She’s by Mucho Macho Man out of the Tapit mare, Tacit Approval. My horse “aunt”/mentor is listed as one of her breeders.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

For Oaks day- here she is. Still wow .


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## CaliforniaDreaming (May 8, 2011)

I got up early to watch the filly my “aunt” bred run and record it for her at a later date. Mama did nice! She broke nice, ran well and moved into the road at the top of the stretch, but just got run down there at the wire. Not bad!


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

That's awesome


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

So much for t he wise guy horse. King Furry spiked a fever, had to scratch.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

I should be looking at the Oaks first, but I've been spending my time looking at the Derby instead. A few interesting things...

There are 3 undefeated horses - of course everyone has heard of Essential Quality in post 14. Also, post 12 Helium is undefeated 3 for 3 lifetime and post 15 is Rock your World also 3 for 3. 

Post 13 is Hidden Stash, which both Helium (Tampa Bay derby) and Essential Quality (Blue Grass stakes) have beaten. E.Q. also beat Highly motivated and keepmeinmind in the bluegrass. 

Rock your World beat Medina Spirit in the Santa Anita derby. He led post to wire, very convincing victory.

I'm off to look at the Oaks, gotta make some choices there....


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

For the Oaks...two I really like are the (10) Malathaat, and the (12) Search results. Both are unbeaten. Love the breeding on both fillies. Also, Clairiere, Travel column, and Moraz to round out the top 5.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

Was just reading about all the Stonestreet breeding here. I’ll go with Clairiere for a decent price, but Travel Column is a nice looking filly.

The commentators just made an interesting point that these horses have been racing, but have never seen a crowd this “big”-didn’t even think about that possibly making a difference today or tomorrow.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

@aubie, why are Paulines Pearl (1) and Clairiere (3) not an entry (1/1A) with the same owner and trainer? I thought that’s how it worked?


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

It is @egrogan I don't know the deal there.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

aubie said:


> Kentucky Oaks thoughts and selections.
> 
> The 7 should break in top and try to take them all the way around. To far against to touch here. The 10 is probably likely winner, although the top 3 in here have been trading some. That's the 3 and 6 along with her. The 12 is stepping up, but a perfect 3 for 3. The 1 is interesting. A Tapit and half to Derby winner Always Dreaming.
> 
> ...


Not bad 
10-12 exacta paid $37.80
10-12- with that 11 long shot underneath trifecta paid $464.50
10-12-11-3 Superfecta paid $2,808.70


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Here is the Daily Racing Forms free past performance for the Derby. Get it and handicap along.









Daily Racing Form | Horse Racing | Entries | Results | PPs (Past Performances)


127 years of horse racing news and handicapping analysis. Trusted from Kentucky to Hong Kong. Expert picks, live race video, and home to Beyer Speed Figures.




www.drf.com


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## JCnGrace (Apr 28, 2013)

Never picked a winner once today. That's what I get for always rooting for the underdog. Not that it makes a difference since I'm not actually betting.


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## pnr (Jan 16, 2021)

I actually work for the biggest pay tv and sports broadcaster in Africa but they are not big on showing Equestrian events. I thought maybe I would find it in the schedules.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

My dog with me last night-couldn’t figure out all the fuss over watching horses on tv, when there were _real _horses to keep an eye on outside 🧐 That’s a shepherd for you...


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## phantomhorse13 (Feb 18, 2011)

Trainer for Soup and Sandwich (and Helium) just had a win in an undercard race.. good omen?  

🤞


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Kentucky Derby -

14-Essential Quality. Going to be he favorite, and rightly so. He is a perfect 5/5 and over 1.8 million in earnings. No surprise if he won. But I dont see him as Justify or American Pharaoh type. Defiantly a user, and a key to wheel around. The race should go through him.

15-Rock Your World. I think this horse is a monster. An under the radar monster. His prep race was the best to me. I can totally see this horse winning.

9-Hot Rod Charlie. Lost of experience and has the speed figures. has to be a user, but the Louisiana derby horses have not really faired all that well in Kentucky. 

17-Highly Motived - Got to use, this horse has been right there with the top choices. 

Mix in wheels, across the board types_ 1, 10( cant leave big money Mike out) 8 (big game Bob, Johnny V) 18,19 if you have room, cheap wheel.


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## phantomhorse13 (Feb 18, 2011)

I sincerely hope that the favorite does not win. I know the horse has no control over who his owner is, but I cannot and will not ever root for that stable.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

phantomhorse13 said:


> I sincerely hope that the favorite does not win. I know the horse has no control over who his owner is, but I cannot and will not ever root for that stable.


Exactly!

Heres my superfecta box:
Rock Your World, Bourbonic, Helium, Soup and Sandwich

may they all come home safe and sound


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

12 14 and 15 are the three I am watching. Especially 14 and 15.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

I like soup and sandwich too, just don't know about the post position.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Surprise Baffert won again.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

I didn't like that start


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

How’s you do @aubie?

poor soup and sandwich cantered home last. He went to fast early but obviously was not in danger of winning


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

A few bucks on The 8 across the board is all I had. Didn't have the 7


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## ksbowman (Oct 30, 2018)

We really enjoyed the race but, had no favorite other than rooting for the oldest jockey Mike Smith!


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## ksbowman (Oct 30, 2018)

The other thing that really tickled us is the winner was purchased for only $1,000. Not many race horses that had a purchase price of only a grand.


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## lb27312 (Aug 25, 2018)

Yep great race! Yeah Soup and Sandwich came out fast but maybe they held him back when they realized there was no chance? Not sure... Yeah I thought I heard that on the 1k but that's crazy. I really thought Rock Your World would have performed better... 

Thanks for this thread @aubie!!


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## ChieTheRider (May 3, 2017)

There's something really cool about a scrappy little thousand dollar horse winning the Derby. A friend of mine won $600 betting on him.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

I agree, it was a great story. This was a great read, hearing about it from his breeder, who was able to be there to see him win: Breeder Gail Rice Catches Lightning With Medina Spirit


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## ClearDonkey (Nov 27, 2016)

I didn't watch the Derby when it was live, but just watched a replay on YouTube.

What's the consensus of horseforum - it is the breeding of the horse that plays the biggest part, or the training behind the horse, or maybe both?

Clearly Baffert has figured out the winning training formula to produce a great horse, no matter if the horse is a $$$ horse or a $1,000 horse...

I skimmed the Pedigree Fun Facts for the 2021 Kentucky Derby website. Clearly there is overlap in their pedigrees across the board, but I am not very familiar with racing.

I've read many posts from Denny Emerson and Amanda (The $900 Facebook Pony blogger) about eventing bloodlines confirming that yes, a grade horse can be a fantastic, successful, upper-level eventer (Theodore O'Conner anyone?), but there is weight behind certain breeding.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

@ClearDonkey , I'm just a fan, I have no connection to breeding (though we do have some legit TB breeders here on HF), but my opinion: we are in a weird moment of seeing the impacts of "breed to sell" vs. "breed to race" showing up in the younger horses on the Derby path in their 2- and 3-yr old years. Sales value precocious young horses who are pushed hard early to peak with a Triple Crown race, or _maybe _a late summer classic, after which they will be retired for the breeding shed. Then they will get a good book in their first couple of crops because there's only possibility, not any crops of racing age on the ground to sully the dream that they can produce a precocious young horse to put on the Derby trail, rinse, repeat. So the horses we've seen winning contemporary Derbies have very "commercial" pedigrees- winning the race is great, but it's great because it add $$ to the stud fee later. I'm not saying the winners don't care about the glory and the touchy-feely stuff that comes with the Triple Crown, but I would cynically say it's about money as much as it's about sport.

These types of horses "bred out the wazoo" end up with a Baffert or a Pletcher because they are the trainers who have a system that maximizes the odds of getting a horse to peak in a Classic race, and it's sort of a tacit understanding that if you have success there, you're pretty much done with racing after that, because the real prize is a big stud fee as quickly as possible. That doesn't leave a lot of room for backing off a horse who needs time to grow, or who can't hold up to the pressure (mental or physical), or who needs a more customized program.

Every now and then you'll see a Graham Motion or a Barclay Tagg use a more horse-centric approach and come up with a big win, but they're not the guys winning 7 Derby titles.

Throw into the mix more owners who see their horses as "investments"- particularly in the breeding shed- you see a concentration of pedigrees that can fit into this type of program and then hold their value after a quick retirement.

So there you go, my 0.02 on the state of things in racing- worth exactly that, and maybe less 

For those who asked about Soup and Sandwich being eased, turns out he did have an issue but will be fine: Soup and Sandwich 'fine' after Kentucky Derby mishap


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## ksbowman (Oct 30, 2018)

@ClearDonkey , I don't know if it has so much to do with the high power breeding or not. What I do know is if a horse has the "want to" for anything they are the horse to get. I have always been a lover of grade horses and seem to always get one that fits my wants and has a good attitude. Only had one that didn't. Best horse I had was registered but, the one I'm training now is grade and I couldn't be happier on how she is coming along. Love it the most when the underdog wins at anything! By the way I only paid $600 for her as a yearling and I told Shirley after the race if I had only spent $400 more we could have had a Kentucky Derby winner.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

I have mentioned this before, but I am really thinks it fits. I was watching a PBS show- can't remember the name about history of horse racing. The two things that they mentioned really stuck out.

Along the way it became, like a lot of things in America, about specialization. That people no longer wanted to raise their horse, race their horses, and then bring them back home. It took to long. Winning in the sales ring became more important than the winners circle.

And yes winning in the breeding shed. Top sires make more in a week or less than winning a million dollar race.

And a side note- I remember a lot of talk about low cost/ not big pedigree with California Chrome. Now while don't think he as as great as he was made out to be, his pedigree wasn't that bad. And now this one. He has 2 Triple Crown winners, Storm Cat and AP Indy, - the female desirable Blushing Groom line, Unbridled, and Dynoformer( Barbaros sire)

It has become more of a ROI, investing type deal. Racing got a infusion of people during the financial crash. They brought that mentality. Wasn't hard to sell to people who weren't from generations of horse farmers. They basically created mutual funds.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

aubie said:


> Wasn't hard to sell to people who weren't from generations of horse farmers. They basically created mutual funds.


Haha, this is absolutely the best way to put it. Gave me a chuckle.

You know what though, it did make me sad to see that there was a horse in Phipps silks trained by Pletcher and part of a three-way ownership group (I mean, them in with Repole? Seemed...odd). I guess because I grew up with them as _the _epitome of NY racing...They were a family of breeders and racers. Not horse farmers, but at least invested in nurturing their pedigrees over generations (of people and horses!). I know as the elder members of the family have died, its been harder for the current family to keep the stable going. Dynamic One couldn't be a more classic Phipps pedigree though: Dynamic One Pedigree Page


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

@egrogan I think we are saying the same thing basically. They did have to have to actually feed and muck horses, but were involved over generations. 

That pedigree - usually you want Dixland Union on the bottom. But it works .


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

NBC Sports Reports Strong Kentucky Derby Numbers


NBC Sports' presentation of the Kentucky Derby (G1) May 1 at Churchill Downs averaged a Total Audience Delivery of 14.5 million viewers as the Run for the Roses returned to its traditional first Saturday in May date.




www.bloodhorse.com


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## CaliforniaDreaming (May 8, 2011)

Bloodhorse and Paulick Report are now reporting that Medina Spirit tested positive for betamethasone and if the split sample comes back positive, he might be DQ’ed

I wish I could say accidents happen. But given horses in this particular barn keep coming back with positives … I’m not sure what to say.


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## kewpalace (Jul 17, 2013)

Discouraging. 😖


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## Remali (Jul 22, 2008)

Hate to be a killjoy here.... but how many free passes are they going to give Baffert? Isn't this like his 29th violation now? Baffert should be banned for life.
Dirty sport. Dirty trainers.


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## CaliforniaDreaming (May 8, 2011)

Remali said:


> Hate to be a killjoy here.... but how many free passes are they going to give Baffert? Isn't this like his 29th violation now? Baffert should be banned for life.
> Dirty sport. Dirty trainers.


I think it’s 30. 5th in a year. I really don’t know what’s going on with the CHRB, considering the NyRA managed to somehow ban Dutrow for a decade and has managed to uphold it despite appeals.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Interesting article from blood horse on the issue. Includes Baffert's press conference. He's trying to make himself out to be the victim.








Medina Spirit Tests Positive for Betamethasone


Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Medina Spirit has tested positive for the corticosteroid betamethasone and faces possible disqualification from the May 1 race at Churchill Downs, it was announced May 9.




www.bloodhorse.com


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