# 2019 Road To The Kentucky Derby



## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Here is the leaderboard 

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/leaderboard


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## JCnGrace (Apr 28, 2013)

I would like the profiles. When we first moved down here to Southern IN with our local TV coming out of Louisville the station that had the coverage contract did profiles and racing video for each Derby entry and that was so interesting. Then they lost the contract and NBC took over and all they want to show is hats, clothes and what celebrities are there. I wish they'd go back to making it about the horses!


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

This is a feature on a contender, Hidden Scroll. I would like to say I spotted and jumped on this horse . Truth is I watched his race on Pegasus day and even played him but didn't really pay that much attention. Another poster messaged me. 

He is a son of Hard Spun, which is the very desirable Danzig line. What I remember most about him was he was a hard tryer. And was always right there in the Triple Crown races with Street Sense, and 2 time horse of the year Curlin. 

His race on Pegasus day was his debut. Here is something from an article comparing his race with the big events winner, City Of Light

"The feeling here is that we witnessed something very special on Saturday, despite the track. You normally don’t see an 8-1 shot look that sensational first time out, winning under a hand ride by 14 lengths in a scintillating 1:34 4/5 for the mile. If you feel the track was so fast it takes away from the time then forget the actual time. He ran the mile faster than the 5-year-old City of Light ran his mile in the $9 million Pegasus World Cup at 1 1/8 miles. He came home his final eighth in just about the same time as City of Light. He ran his mile more than a full second faster than it took the 6-year-old Aztec Sense to win the grade 3 Fred W. Hooper Stakes, and Aztec Sense was winning his ninth consecutive race, including five stakes. Finally, he ran his opening half-mile in :44.75, compared to the :44.37 it took one of the fastest sprinters in the country, World of Trouble, in the off-the-turf Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint."

His time would also be a very good Met Mile. This poster also pointed out he took a massive drop in the futures. From 75/1 to 14/1 
One definitely to keep an eye on going forward into the Fountain Of Youth.

Here is the race.


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## JCnGrace (Apr 28, 2013)

He looked like he was just out for a fun gallop.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

That's always what you look for. Big difference in a :45 half with a horse being hustled and one for fun.


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## kewpalace (Jul 17, 2013)

aubie said:


> Would you like more horse profiles? A top contenders type thing?


I love reading the horse profiles and your thoughts on their abilities and chances in the prep races (and ultimately the Derby). 

While I like reading about top contenders, I'd also would love to see input on horses that may not be a top contender NOW but is looking like maybe being a "late bloomer" or one that is flying under the radar.

Appreciate your putting these posts up; while I may not comment on them much, I do read them and I do enjoy them. Thanks @aubie.


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## kewpalace (Jul 17, 2013)

Just watched the Hidden Scroll video above. VERY impressive indeed! Definitely will keep an eye on him.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

kewpalace said:


> I love reading the horse profiles and your thoughts on their abilities and chances in the prep races (and ultimately the Derby).
> 
> While I like reading about top contenders, I'd also would love to see input on horses that may not be a top contender NOW but is looking like maybe being a "late bloomer" or one that is flying under the radar.
> 
> Appreciate your putting these posts up; while I may not comment on them much, I do read them and I do enjoy them. Thanks @aubie.


You are very welcome. Will try to to include more of what you are talking about.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

A 10-4-2-1 points race today at Tampa Bay Downs. The Sam F Davis. 

Here are my thoughts selections 

Think the (3)Knicks Go is a standout, and deserving favorite. Can't leave off the (8) for Pletcher with Javier up. If it melts down up front, he could come and get it. So could the (6) a Tapit colt.
Also some sprinkle in with a chance/price the (7) a Distored Humor with Jose up, and the 
(10) for a price could improve 3rd start
That's the thing with these, which take steps forward and which are destined to go in specialized areas. Like,sprints or,turf.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

I don't usually participate, but I do enjoy reading these racing threads. I will try to be more active....

I personally enjoy the race breakdowns, and the details on individual horses. I tend to look for the longshot possibilities, that said...

In the David, looking at number 5 Moonster... Love the breeding. Unbridled and AP Indy, Seattle Slew. Heavily raced as a 2 yo (6 races, 1 win, 1 place, 4 finishes below top 3), this is 3 yo debut. He is a late foal for a TB (April), so one I personally will be watching....


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

I like that breeding as well. I will go back and look for replay.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Not having any luck with replay. My pet peeve with this sport is the lack of all sorts of information and viewing.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

I've got an account on twin spires, just to watch the races. Unfortunately#5 Moonster didn't perform well. I really like his breeding tho. Well Defined won it today...

https://www.horseracingnation.com/n..._trail_Well_Defined_upsets_in_Sam_F_Davis_123


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The Risen Star Stakes -Saturday race 12 Fair Grounds. This is stepping it up a 50-20-10-5 points race.


1)plus One Parfait Jockey Julien Leparoux Trainer Brendan Walsh 10/1

2)Roiland Jockey James Graham Trainer Tom Amos 20/1

3)Mr. Money Jockey Gabriel Saez Trainer Bret Calhoun 12/1

4)Chase The Ghost Jockey Mitchell Murill Trainer Dallas Stewart 30/1

5)Henley's Joy Jockey Manuel Franco Trainer Mike Maker 10/1

6)Hog Creek Hustle Jockey Florent Geroux Trainer Vickie Foley 8/1

7)Manny Wah Jockey Channing Hill Trainer Wayne Catalano 12/1

8)Owendale Jockey Shaun Bridgmohan Trainer Brad Cox 6/1

9)Country House Jockey Luis Saez Trainer William Mott 20/1

10)Limonite Jockey Brian Hernandez Trainer Steve Asmussen 10/1

11)Dunph Jockey Jose Ortiz Trainer Mike Maker 20/1

12)Frolic More Jockey Corey Lanerie Trainer Dallas Stewart 10/1

13)Kingly- Did Not Ship

14)War Of Will Jockey Tyler Gaffalione Trainer Mark Casse 5/2

15)Gun It Jockey Richard Santana Trainer Steve Asmussen 10/1


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Aubie, do you have any thoughts on this group? Any favorites? Wasn't real familiar with any of these, so did some research on them....

First standout to me is Henley's Joy. 6 races lifetime, 3 firsts 2 seconds, only out of the top 3 once. Son of Kitten's Joy, a multiple graded stakes winner. Definitely one to watch, imo.

Also, really like Owendale. Love the Bernardini /AP Indy/ Seattle Slew breeding. He is 4 of 6 lifetime top 3 finishes.

Manny Wah has Will Take Charge/Unbridled Song/Unbridled. 8 races, 2 first 2 second, 2 third, 2 out of top 3 finishes.

Finally, Gun It is very lightly raced, 3 lifetime starts. One 1st one 3rd. Love the breeding... Medaglia D'oro and Pulpit/AP Indy.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Yes here is my work up from another site- 

Doing my thoughts and selections tonight as I didn't fill in any tournaments and hopefully I will Friday and Saturday.
This race is all about the (14) and the Lecomte. Many of the entries are from that or a n1x. So let's look at that before anything else. 



Slow fractions early. Not seeing that much more with the (7) probably on the lead in this one. Can't see him sticking around.
The (14) will be a heavy favorite- more on wagering a little later- for good reason. A son of War Front. And despite the slow going early he kicked home nicely. Visually for me I loved the front leg action. He really sat down for the drive when asked. He does have a couple of things against him. That (14) post does him no favors. And Tyler is up. Personally I don't like him at all, and trying to be objective he still is 3rd level jock at best for me. Thinking at some point he gets this horse beat. But really shouldn't be in this spot.
The (6) Hog creek Hustle finished 2nd last time. Always want to ask yourself what needs to happen to move him up. Is the (14) post enough?
Next try to come up with some cuts. The (2)is in the video above and really didn't do any running. The (5) is probably taking a shot. And I am absolutely ok with that, it's doing right by the horse. But we all know this one will be on the green going. Probably next out. And he may be a play there. The aforementioned (7) I think goes as far as he can, but has been beat by some in here. Maybe sprinting in future. The (11) just isn't doing enough.
Now we turn to users. The (8) actually I think has a chance to win this thing. (6) should be around somewhere. Now the prices/ underneath types. The (4)&(12) are Dallas Stewart's. He really does well with longshots and seems every year he gets on in the Derby by putting together points. The (3) was Fourth in the BC Juvenile. But right now I'm on the fence with him. (10)&15) are Steves. He does so well at Fair Grounds.
So really it comes to how you want to play this. I'm thinking although big fields and pools usually make me lean towards boxes, thinking wheels are the way to go here. The (14) seems like a very likely winner. So how to mix them up? Can go key the (14) with as many as you can or want underneath, maybe some smaller a couple of times. Maybe key him in second if you think the post is to tough.
If slimming down underneath, of Dallas's I like the (12) better than the (4) For Steve the (10) better than the (15) post and disappointed last out.


I totally skipped the (9) He is definitely the deep closer. Like he has stumbled at gate and won. I've got him in the use column. Tbh I'm not sure of the caliber he has closed on at this point. Couldn't find anything. Bill Mott has an usually big group of 3yo this year. He is all about quality over quantity and spots his horses very well. The (9) closed big at Gulfstream which always gets my attention. It was a MSW so there's that. He may be the most intriguing of the bunch.
Also for wagering any that you like is worth a shot for a couple of bucks because the (14) is going to get clobbered at the window and you will get a nice price.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

I do like the (15) pedigree a whole lot.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

(5) (8) and (15) are my top 3 picks for this race... Should be interesting to see. I will be working, but hopefully can grab a break and catch it live. I know that the (5) is a turf horse, but still interesting in this race to me...


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

And I didn't mean in any way to sound like I was poo pooing him or your picks. 

I love Kittens a Joy. Love the Ramseys. Love what they have done.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

No offense taken, no worries. I realize talent on turf doesn't always (usually) translate to dirt track. Just interested to see how he does. Also, I tend to look for the longshot, the overlooked...just the way I am, and not always a good thing when it comes to betting, lol... I don't take offense easily, and always open to other opinions.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Good because I have really enjoyed your thoughts.

And the other site I post on, ticket construction is a big part of it.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Although right now I am in a bad place. Just clicked out of two winners in the first two at the big A. Trying to outsmart myself I guess.
Boy I hope I turn things around.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

It was all about the (14) in the Risen Star. Paid $4 for every $2 you wager.
The hard closing (9) got up for second to pay $32 for the exacta.

All and all not bad. Didn't have the (2) who got third.

Will try to get video and all up sometime tonight.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

I am really liking "Wow" and hope he can keep rolling. Horses haven't really seemed to do well recently coming out of Fairgrounds to the Derby, but maybe he'll change that. I like watching races there, the saddling ring makes the horses very accessible even on big days.

Might sound weird, but I actually thought the way Serengeti Empress won was more impressive- she just looked more comfortable than Wow did all the way around. 
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/usa/fg/2019/2/16/11/rachel-alexandra-s-g2


ETA: I did forget that Gun Runner had won the 2016 Louisiana Derby, so that's something :wink:


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

She was impressive, with pretty much the same fractions.

It's true horses from Fair Grounds have not historically done well at the Derby. If memory serves Gun Runner swerved on the rail just like the (9) did here. He ran 3rd I believe his Derby year and went on to become him. The main thing I liked about him and what made me a fan wasn't just his talent. He learned a little something each race.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Looking forward to the Fountain of Youth on March the 2nd... Hidden Scroll is set to race there. 😉 I don't believe his debut win was a fluke, but I will be much more confident after seeing another race from him, in better company. I really feel he is an awesome colt.

Not to hijack this thread from Derby preps and news, but I saw this when looking at current racing news. Sad day. https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-ra...of-midway-euthanized-after-training-breakdown


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Not mashing like although I do agree on Hidden Scroll.

I'm really sad about Battle Of Midway. He rounded out my ticket in his Derby Year and the next year got up and put it on the favorite in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile.

He was a beautiful son of very notable sire Smart Strike. Read in comments he was his last. He had talent and a ton of heart. Finished up a winner last out showing that heart against McKenzie. He will be terribly missed. 

For all the joys, excitement and breathtaking moments this sport brings, these moments are crushingly hard.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

I read he had a few foals that he sired. Maybe 5? Going to try and look up their info. It's a shame he didn't work out at stud, or he wouldn't have been racing anymore. Always sad when these things happen...

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/231992/battle-of-midway-represented-by-first-foal


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

First media poll is out. Note Maximus Mischief is off the trail.

Kentucky Derby Media Poll (Week 1)
Horse (1st-place votes)	Points 
1. Game Winner (19)	581
2. Improbable (5) 579 
3. War of Will (3)	551
4. Hidden Scroll	425
5. Mucho Gusto 405 
6. Instagrand (2)	394
7. Signalman 367 
8. Country House (1)	323
9. Galilean (1)	239
10. Gunmetal Gray 236 
11. Vekoma 229
12. Tax 225
13. Harvey Wallbanger 192 
14. Win Win Win 148
15. Well Defined 136
16. Global Campaign 121
17. Dream Maker 116 
18. Maximus Mischief 111 
19. Mind Control	101
20. Super Steed


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Sad to see Maximus Mischief off the trail. Hopefully his injury heals well, and he still has a future racing. Soft tissue injuries are difficult to determine time wise for healing. 

I'm still very much a Hidden Scroll fan, even after only his maiden race. Can't wait to see how he does in better company. And hopefully a better track, it was pretty wet last time. Can't wait for this weekend...


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Another o/t post....

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/wgoh/archive/2019/02/27/lost-battle-by-evan-hammonds.aspx

Found this interesting to read.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

And a post actually on topic... Fountain of Youth lineup is out. Aubie, I know you usually do this but I can't wait... Feel free to post your own.

1) Code of Honor
2) Epic Dreamer
3) Gladiator King
4) Bourbon War
5) Vekoma
6) Signalman
7) Hidden Scroll
8) Global Campaign
9) Everfast
10) Frosted Grace
11) Union's Destiny

I will look at the entries and give my thoughts later, all I have to say for now is this.... Hidden Scroll is the one to watch.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

I just do it to have information out ther. Love to see others putting it up. I got all excited when I saw Frosted Grace, but then had to add up my years- not by Frosted.

Will still probably keep in selections. Have not done any digging into it yet but just looking I think it's Hidden Scroll, Bourbon War exacta


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

After looking over the field a bit:

#6 Signalman has 5 races - 2 first, 2 second, 1 third. All top 3 finishes. Worth throwing in there, perhaps. He is trained by Kenny McPeak.

#5 Vekoma has 0 Derby points, but is lightly raced 2 starts, 2 wins. Hasn't raced since last November. So both starts as a 2 yo. Is the time off good or bad?

#8 Global Campaign is also lightly raced, 2 starts 2 wins. He was not raced at 2, has both starts as a 3 yo. So this will be his third race since January as a maiden 3 yo. Too much too fast?

Agreed about #4 Bourbon War, likely a top 3 finish. Still most interested in the #7 Hidden Scroll. If he performs anything close to his maiden... He will be hard to stop.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Fountain_of_Youth_2019_Odds_and_analysis


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

I will post more after really looking at it. But getting a little made per in thoughts.

I hope you are right about the (6) I still have a soft spot for General Quarters and will be pulling for this one. 

Probably spoke to soon about the (10) betting names is generally a no no for me.

Also a more serious no no is leaving Johnny V off tickets. 

Encouraging thing about the (4) is Irad jumped of the (2) to pick him up. Probably would have liked the (2) a little a speed carries more at Gulfstream but the downgrade at jock probably not.

I am really anxious to see Hidden Scroll again. Although it's a big ask to jump from MSW to here not worried about that. Mott isn't a roll the dice type.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

cobra said:


> After looking over the field a bit:
> 
> #6 Signalman has 5 races - 2 first, 2 second, 1 third. All top 3 finishes. Worth throwing in there, perhaps. He is trained by Kenny McPeak.
> 
> ...


After looking it over I think you have it down. I still going to throw the (1) in there.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Definitely betting on#7 winning... After that, 4, 5, 6 and 8 are interesting. If pushed, I would say 7 - 5 - 6 - 4 and then 8... But we will see soon.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Was disappointed in how the (7) ran. Although it's totally understandable. Won't give up on him yet but he did put himself in a tight spot. 

Johnny winning was understandable as well.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Was disappointed in the #7 as well, will still keep an eye on him though... Agreed about the #1. Can't ever count them out...


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Found this, thought it was interesting....

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.c...en-scroll-camp-likely-to-stay-on-derby-trail/


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

This as well...

https://thoroughbredinsider.com/201...rfedgs9FZDyLdQw_IyrFhrppzWaIV6eadjuk43SlLkO9g

I still really like Hidden Scroll, and believe a large part of his poor finish was jocky error during the ride. Time will tell....


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Some good points. If going from MSW to maiden claimer is the biggest drop in racing, then going from maiden facing winners for the first time is the biggest jump. Let alone going from maiden to stakes. I mentioned he had a lot going against him. I do think he is talented. Part of the reason I went ga ga over Justify last year wasn't just the talent. He was doing things horses just don't do. What happened to Hidden Scroll is what normally happens to horses.

And I think you are on point about the jock. Joel certainly is a capable jockey no doubt. But he isn't in the top tier to me. Johnny is. One of the very best to ever get a leg up. I mentioned it before the race but leaving him off a ticket is a big no no for me. The (1) wasn't the best horse in the race, but he had the best rider. Had Hidden Scroll had Javier who didn't have a mount, I think he would have done better. Most polls have War Of Will 3rd. As long as he has Tyler Gaffalione up I'm not really interested. 

Some on my other board don't pay that much attention to riders and trainer, focusing more on speed and times. That's a way to go. Most handicapping is built around it for sure. I put more weight on what I see visually and connections than most. And in Hidden Scrolls case I'm a big believer in Bill Mott. He trained not only one of my all time favorites but one of the greatest of all time in Cigar. He knows what a good horse is. And Cigar wasn't when he got him as a 4 year old. 

The top two horses are running this weekend at Santa Anita. Probably the last time we see that before the Derby as they are both Bobs. The winner will be the Derby favorite. 

I have not given up on Hidden Scroll. Florida Derby will go a long way. But he again will be facing not only more experienced horses, but more proven.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

So... Lots of news tonight. Global Campaign is off the Derby trail due to injury sustained during the Fountain of Youth, where he finished 5th. Link if anyone wants to read about it.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-ra...mpaign-off-derby-trail-after-grabbing-quarter

Also, one of the Derby prep races scheduled to be run Saturday will not be run. Not sure if it will be rescheduled, or moved to another track. Santa Anita park is having issues with it's main track and all racing has been suspended indefinitely.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/232388/santa-anita-cancels-racing-indefinitely

There are a couple Derby preps tomorrow, one in England and one in Ireland. Not familiar with the horses. Will post if anything stands out to me after looking them over.


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## Filou (Jan 16, 2014)

Not looking good for cal bred/trained horses this year. Santa Anita isn't looking too good right now.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Tampa Bay Derby March 9th
Grade 2 (+50, 20, 10, 5 Derby points)

1) Admire
2) Sir Winston
3) Lord Dragon 
4) Dream Maker
5) Well Defined
6) Outshine
7) Win Win Win
8) The Right Path
9) Dunph
10) Tacitus
11) Zenden

Jeff Ruby Steaks @ Turfway Park Mar 9th
Grade 3 (+ 20, 8, 4, 2 Derby points)

1) Dynamic Racer
2) Moonster
3) Five Star General
4) Dabo
5) Baytown Jimbo
6) Skywire
7) Counter Offer
8) Twelfthofneverland
9) Curlin Grey
10) Somelikeithotbrown
11) Speed App

I'll be looking these over and giving my thoughts shortly.....


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Will do some digging on those a little later. 

I do like seeing Turfway have a big day. But personally don't like it during the day as I enjoy their nighttime racing.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

cobra said:


> Tampa Bay Derby March 9th
> Grade 2 (+50, 20, 10, 5 Derby points)
> 
> 1) Admire
> ...


Interested in your Gothom as well. So far I'm all about Instagrand. And speaking of what's going on with Santa Anita what a call now going to New York. And I like Mike to make the ticket as well.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Tampa Bay Derby

Mott has the (10) Tacitus. Took him 2 races to break his maiden, the first race he was 4th. Also his first race was a rough one, alot of bumping and such. Even had an objection by one of the jockeys. He has only run twice, lightly raced. Definitely one to watch.

Kathleen O'Connell has the (5) Well Defined. Seven starts, 3 first, 1 second, 1 third. Medaglia D'oro and Storm Cat breeding. Not one to count out.

Victor Barbosa Jr has the (11) Zenden.
3 races, 2 first, one second. One of my top pics. Giants causeway/ storm cat and sharp humor/distorted humor breeding.

Todd Pletcher has the (6) Outshine. This colt won his maiden, dropped back to 5th on his second race (stakes) and then won his third race (claiming). Not sure what to make of him. He has good breeding. AP Indy and Unbridled Song/ Unbridled. 

Dale Romans has the (1) Admire. Took him 2 races to win his maiden, and then he placed 5th in a grade 3 stakes. So 1 win, 3 races lifetime. Good post position. Another one I'm not sure what to expect from.

Looking for a long shot to make money on? Look at the (3) or the (8).

Bred by Calumet Farm, the (3) Lord Dragon has 1 first, 2 second, and 1 third from 6 starts. His breeding is awesome - Oxbow/ Awesome again and broken spell/ broken vow/ Unbridled. 

The (8) the right path is lightly raced. One first, one second from 2 races lifetime. It's a big jump in competition thought. He is by Always Trouble/ Bernardini/ AP Indy.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

aubie said:


> Interested in your Gothom as well. So far I'm all about Instagrand. And speaking of what's going on with Santa Anita what a call now going to New York. And I like Mike to make the ticket as well.


Oops, forgot the Gotham. Will post that one, and my thoughts on Jeff Ruby Steaks shortly. 

What's going on with the Derby preps scheduled for Santa Anita?


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Who knows. It really is a hard spot. If I'm guessing they make up the San Felipe somewhere else - money on Los Al and then have it back open for the Santa Anita Derby. No way Stonach lets that go anywhere else.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Gotham Stakes Mar 9th 
(+50, 20, 10 and 5 Derby points)

(1) Family Biz
(2) Knicks Go
(3) Mind Control
(4) Much Better
(5) Haikal
(6) Instagrand
(7) Not That Brady
(8) Tikhvin Flew

Thoughts on this to come...


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

No work up yet for me but not really loving Knicks Go


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Gotham Stakes

Jerry Holendorfer has (6) Instagrand. He is 2 for 2. No losses. Good breeding. 

Kiaran McLaughlan has (5) Haikal. Three races lifetime, 2 first one second finish. Definitely one to watch. Awesome again and Distorted humor.

Can't count out the (3) Mind Control. 5 races lifetime, 3 wins, 1 second. John Velasquez is up. Bernardini/AP Indy and Storm Cat - great breeding.

Can't really get myself excited about Bafferts (4) Much Better. Partly because I don't care for Baffert and partly due to his last few performances. 5 starts, 2 first, 1 second and 1 third. Third and 14th in his only two graded stakes. 

Also the (2) Knicks Go - not a fan. Especially looking at his last performance. 7 starts, 2 first,1 second and 1 third. Finished third and 11th in his last 2 graded stakes. Heavily raced compared to the others.

The (7) Not That Brady is fairly heavily raced. 6 races, 2 first, 2 second. Took him awhile to break his maiden win, but he's been 2nd and 1st in his last two stakes races. Worth watching. Also has Unbridled in his pedigree fairly close.

The (8) Tikhvin Flew is lightly raced, one first, one third. Might be a bit outclassed? Breeding is ok but nothing standout. Worth a long shot bet perhaps.

So basically imo 5, 6, 3 - maybe throw in 7 or 8. 4 might surprise me.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Jeff Ruby Steaks G3

Three of these horses raced together at the Sam Davis Stakes a few weeks ago. The (2) Moonster (3) Five Star General and (7) Counter Offer. Looking at the results, Counter Offer finished 4th, Five Star General 6th, and Moonster 8th. Taking that into consideration....

I really like the (6) Skywire. 2 for 2 lifetime, this is his first stakes but it's a G3. Looking at the competition, and his record and breeding I believe he has a good shot.

The (10) Somelikeithotbrown is also one to watch. Except for his maiden race, he has finished top 3 in all his races. 6 starts lifetime, 2 first, 2 second and one third. His third place finish came in the G1 Breeder cup juvenile turf. Question is does he prefer turf to dirt? His last race (John Battaglia memorial stakes) he was 1st on synthetic track. 

Lukas has the (11) Speed App. I want to like him, just because it's Lukas. But this horse is winless in 7 starts. His last two races he finally hit the board in third, then second. Would probably throw into my top 3 or 4. But not to win. I miss the days when Lukas had good stakes horses sent to him.

Speaking of the John Battaglia memorial stakes, three of the horses entered in the Jeff Ruby Steaks finished 1, 2, 3 in that race. (10) Somelikeithotbrown won, (1) Dynamic Racer was 2nd, and (4) Dabo was third.

Taking everything into account, I would probably go (6) (10) (11) (7). Knowing the (11) is a longshot thrown in.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The Gotham Stakes Aquaduct


1)Family Bizz- Taking a step up. Is a closer, but he kinda has to be as he is not that quick. Seems overmatched, cut

2)Knicks Go- Started out with a bang. But his Sam F Davis was a no excuse disappointment and visually lacking. And leaving home track to come to New York seems like connections have had lots of peeks at the ones signed on there and are trying something else. To much for me, cut

3)Mind Control- Brain says a sprinkle in , underneath sort. Johnny can turn that into a win as we saw last weekend. User

4)Mind Control. Bob knows this one can't beat his top pair so comes east. Having had lots of looks in the mornings at the (6) Instagrand he shipped anyway. Brought Mike along. Just have to use

5)Haikal- Loves the track, always near the wire. Very honest horse. Don't see as win candidate but underneath. That plus price makes him the across the board play.

6)Instagrand- Even money favorite for a lot of reasons. Undefeated, only horse with a triple digit Beyer figure, and has been stunning visually. If he is him, it's over. But some concern coming off a layoff. Just can't leave out most likely winner.

7)Not That Brady- A stakes winner cutting back always gets a look. Trainer Rudy Rod is tough at the Big A. Don't see as win candidate either more underneath sort. Definitely for the bottom of trifecta and superfecta type.

8) A stepping upper for Steve Asmussen. Double D is a quality New York rider that has been doing well. But the first string is back in town. Price underneath.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The Tampa Bay Derby- Tampa Bay Downs


This looks like a wide open group, with a lot of horses stepping up, and trying two turns for the first time, and a lot of mixed surfaces. Have entries that have run on turf, dirt and synthetic.

Everything looks to be in the middle. The (4)&(7) seem to be the most logical winners. 

The (5) won the Sam F Davis here. Normally I don't like taking the winner of the prep for a Derby prep as much better seem to come to town. So don't see as a winner exactly more of a user/ underneath

(3)(8)(9) look to be auto cuts. Think the 11) has to much going against him, namely the post.

(10) is a user, hunch play for Bill Mott and the first time lasix angle. Also the across the board selection.

The sprinkle in /underneath/ few buck for the price is where the (2)&(6) come in for me.


Large field suggests boxes are an ok way to go. And of course wheels with how you like them


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The Jeff Ruby- Turfway Park.

For those that may not be familiar, Turfway is a synthetic surface. It's a good choice for their location and the meets they run in winter. But it can be a little trick for those who have not experience on it. Conventional wisdom is turf runners/pedigrees transfer to synthetic. So overall my thoughts are tread a little lightly here.


My selections are going to be the 1,6,9,10,11. A little heavy on the outside but they do ok here/ surface as compared to other places.
The (10) is the favorite having nicely won the prep the John Battaglia. Logical choice. I'm using but not crazy about. If he was facing all locals probably more so. And this is my personal thing so take it for what it's worth. Tyler Gaffalione comes in to ride. Why or what Maker is thinking I don't know. It's not like he can't get a good rider. Tyler loses on more good horses/favorites than anyone I have ever seen. He is a bankroll killer. I except him to get this horse beat here today.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Fox Sports 2 will have coverage staring at 4:00 est


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Gotham is up first... Still going 5, 6, 3, 7. May regret not throwing the 4 in...

Tampa Bay Derby is next...


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Tampa Bay Derby, final pics...
5, 10, 11, 3.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Jeff Ruby... Final pics... 6, 10, 11, 7


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

cobra said:


> Gotham is up first... Still going 5, 6, 3, 7. May regret not throwing the 4 in...
> 
> Tampa Bay Derby is next...


That's it. Will look to post payouts shortly.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-ra...port-san-felipe-will-not-be-contested-in-2019

Looks like they will not run the San Felipe at all this year.

Gotham I was close... 5, 3, 6... And 4. Knew I should have thrown the 4 in. 7 was last.

Tampa Bay Derby I got the 10 and 11 right, the 3 was last and the 5 finished 8th.

One more to go...


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

I have not looked at the Tampa. Just watched the Jeff Ruby. That sorry Gaffalione won. I said before if he ever wins a Derby, I'll quit racing. It won't be worth anything if someone like him wins.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

cobra said:


> Jeff Ruby... Final pics... 6, 10, 11, 7



The (6) jockey was awful. Let the (11) lay on him all the way down the stretch.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The Tampa Bay

This is definitely the best of the day. (10) hunch play/across the board pick paid $19.80 to win $8.60 show $$4.60 to play
The sprinkler in underneath with him paid $128 exacta and $230 trifecta. Hope some got some or all of that


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The Gotham

Boy the across the board plays are coming in today the (5) paid $10.80 $4.90 2.90 
He came in with the other users. For a nice $48 dollar exacta and $104.20 trifecta
Still not giving up on the (6) he is very talented

The Jeff Ruby was a mess. The only thing I got right there was tread lightly. Turfway is one of my favorite places to play. But it's unique and sometimes can be disastrous to a handicapper.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Baffert sending this top pair to Oaklawn for the Rebel. Wish you could bet on the race splitting and the separate.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-ra...inner-improbable-to-ship-to-oaklawn-for-rebel

Right now it looks like those two will run 1-2 in Derby.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

So... Rebel Stakes has officially split into two races. Baffert's two horses will be split up so they don't have to run against each other, and I'm sure Baffert hopes they each remain undefeated.

I will post the lineup on the two races soon, unless @aubie beats me to it...


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Fire away I'm playing in some tournaments later and have to go in a bit for the grocery store/ Remington for a walk. I really am not liking this time change.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

The Rebel originally carried a $1 million purse and awarded Derby qualifying points on a 50-20-10-5 scale. Now, the flights will run with separate $750,000 purses, and the races will award 75 percent of the original points, on a 37.5, 15, 7.5 and 3.75 scale to the Top 4 finishers.

Race 1:

(1) Market King
(2) Laughing Fox
(3) Parsimony
(4) Jersey Agenda
(5) Game Winner
(6) Omaha Beach
(7) Our Braintrust
(8) Gunmetal Grey
(9) Kaziranga
(10) Captain Von Trapp

Race 2:

(1) Extra Hope
(2) Long Range Toddy
(3) Corruze
(4) Easy Shot
(5) Proud Nation
(6) Ninth Street
(7) Classy John
(8) Galilean
(9) Improbable


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## SilverMaple (Jun 24, 2017)

Ugh, another fatality at Santa Anita today -- a filly went down with both forelegs fractured even with clean x-rays and work clearance requirements in place. Something is gravely wrong with the track.... I would guess a track designed for a dry climate that has been inundated with rain, and has now had the base disturbed. Baffert moved everything 4 days ago and he adores SA, so that is telling.


Just saw this today, too: http://https://www.horseracingnatio..._as_Santa_Anita_bans_race_day_medication_123#


I don't think Lasix/meds are the reason for the breakdowns at SA, but it's too widely used and something needed to be done.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-ra...ss-lili-b-22nd-equine-fatality-at-santa-anita

Unfortunately, from the sounds of it, they intend to keep the track open. At least until more accidents happen. 

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-ra...-medication-banned-at-santa-anita-golden-gate

Also saw this, will have to read it over closer. I think this will upset many trainers...


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## SilverMaple (Jun 24, 2017)

I'm afraid the only way to fix it is going to be to completely redo the track-- base and all. The water and wet weather on a track made for a dry climate likely packed the base, then it was disturbed trying to get it dried out, and there are pockets or potholes in the base. All it takes is one spot with a different base underneath for horses to die. Unfortunately, that is astronomically expensive and it looks like they aren't going to do it. 



Racing is under immense scrutiny as it is. People in the industry keep saying 'we're doing all we can' but they're not. They keep making excuses and fans leave in droves. Racing can't afford that. Of course the occasional injury will happen, but this is ridiculous.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Breaking down the Rebel:

Starting with the field of 9:

(1) Extra Hope - has raced 7 lifetime, two 1st, one 2nd, two 3rd, two 4th place finishes. Love the breeding. Harlan's Holiday/ Storm Cat and Tiznow. Use in the top 4 for sure.

(2) Long Range Toddy - 6 races lifetime, was 4th in her maiden, and has 3 first, 1 second, 1 third. Love, love, love the breeding. AP Indy/ Seattle Slew and Unbridled Song/ Unbridled. Definitely a top 3 finisher. 

(3) Corruze - 4 starts, 2 first, 2 off the board. Hasn't won anything besides claiming races. With the big boys in town will likely take a backseat.

(4) Easy Shot - 6 lifetime, 1 each first, second, third. Hasn't won a stakes, but has been in the top 4. 

(5) Proud Nation - 3 lifetime starts, one second. Hasn't broken his maiden yet. Probably another out of the money with the big boys in town.

(6) Ninth Street - 8 starts, 2 first and second, 1 third. A possible top 4 finish.

(7) Classy John - 5 starts, 3 first, 2 second. Forestry/ Storm Cat and Unbridled Song/ Unbridled. Definitely a top 4 contender.

(8) Galilean - 4 starts, 3 first, 1 second. Has bloodline from Ireland, not really familiar with. Possible top 4.

(9) Improbable - 3 for 3, Baffert favorite in this race.

Will do the other one in a bit, and post my final choices.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

I know that Game Winner is the most accomplished, but I really like Improbale.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Rebel I
All about the (9) Improbale to use with the (8) is the most logical and for mixing in on wheels Mike on the (1) the (4) and Jon Court on the (2). So the numbers are 1,2,4,8,9. We have used Jon before in spots like this and I remember saying this is just the type race he shines.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Here is the Rebel II
Again all about (5)Game Winner. Final numbers are 2,5,6,7,8


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Rebel II:

(1) Market King - 6 starts, 1 first second and third. He just got the 1st and 3rd this year. Much as I like Lukas, I can't pick him to win. Top 5 maybe.

(2) Laughing Fox - 4 starts, two 1st place. He won his maiden 3rd try. No stakes experience, but a possible top 5 finish imo. Like the Storm Cat / Northern Dancer breeding.

(3) Parsimony - 7 starts, 4 second. No wins. Possible top 5.

(4) Jersey Agenda - 4 starts, 2 first, 1 second. Last race finished 8th in a stakes. 

(5) Game Winner - 4 for 4. Obvious favorite. Like the breeding. Candy Ride and AP Indy/ Seattle Slew. 

(6) Omaha Beach - 5 starts, 1 first, 3 second, 1 third. Should be in the money, top 3. War Front/ Danzig and Seeking the Gold/ Mr Prospector.

(7) Our Braintrust - 5 starts, 2 first, 2 second, 1 third. Top 4 finisher imo. You rarely see Storm Cat so close on a pedigree nowadays. Definitely like his breeding.

(8) Gunmetal Gray - 6 starts, 2 first, 2 second. Danzig/ Northern Dancer up close in breeding. Possible top 5.

(9) Kaziranga - 6 starts, 1 first, 1 second. No stakes wins, or top 4. Probably not a good bet with the big boys in town.

(10) Captain Von Trapp - 5 starts, 2 first, 2 second. No stakes experience. Tapit/ Pulpit/ AP Indy and Dixie Union/ Dixieland Band/ Northern Dancer. Possible longshot top 5 finish.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Final pics:

Rebel Stakes I

I agree @aubie... 1, 2, 4, 8, 9... But I wonder if the shipping cross country and the post position open up the 9 to a possible loss. I really like the 2.

Rebel Stakes II:

2,5,6,7, and.... 1. Just can't count out Lukas with John Velasquez aboard. 5 should win, then 6,7,1,2. Just my opinion.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

I agree with you.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

aubie said:


> Rebel I
> All about the (9) Improbale to use with the (8) is the most logical and for mixing in on wheels Mike on the (1) the (4) and Jon Court on the (2). So the numbers are 1,2,4,8,9. We have used Jon before in spots like this and I remember saying this is just the type race he shines.


That may be the tip of the Derby season. This is where Jon shines. But it wasn't a bad from a performance standpoint for Improbale. Not the best of trips or ride. If he had tipped out instead of in, he would have held on. 

Doesn't make me not like him for Derby selections based off today


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

cobra said:


> Final pics:
> 
> Rebel Stakes I
> 
> ...


Cobra for the save of the day. The (1) made the ticket.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

A tip of the cap as well. Not only saved the day a $184.20 trifecta she gave out.


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## SilverMaple (Jun 24, 2017)

Racing can't catch a break.... Pioneerof The Nile died this morning shortly after breeding a mare. He was 13. One of my favorite stallions gone far too soon. :-(


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

OMG don't know what to say


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-ra...nstars-top-sire-pioneerof-the-nile-dies-at-13

Yes, very sorry to hear he is gone...he was an amazing sire. ;(


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

SilverMaple said:


> Racing can't catch a break.... Pioneerof The Nile died this morning shortly after breeding a mare. He was 13. One of my favorite stallions gone far too soon. :-(


And racing will somehow be blamed for this. Not by people here who have a better understanding but by the public. 

He will be greatly missed. The extent we will never know.

Edit: now seeing in a couple of places COD is heart attack. Just so sad.


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## SilverMaple (Jun 24, 2017)

The blame is all over media... largely over breeding stallions to large books... Even though POTN had a smaller book because he was a slower breeder. The topic keeps going back to Pharoah breeding 200 mares a year in the US and then shuttling. I don't agree with shuttling, but that's beside the point. POTN is a tragic loss to the racing industry and I feel for his connections who are heartbroken.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

I think what's so hard is that there is so much pent up anger and demand to find THE REASON why all this terrible stuff keeps happening, that people start grasping at straws and every additional issue is a chance to defend any number of "root causes" as the explanation. Clearly things are broken. And broken on many dimensions. It's hard to know who or what to blame at this point. I've got to admit, the cynic in me immediately read the POTN news and wondered if someone just wanted to prop up Pharaoh (who I love, by the way) by getting POTN out of the way. That's obviously crazy conspiracy theory type thinking, but everything seems so messed up right now crazy thoughts creep in...


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

All of this just makes me dislike people more and more. And our society and all the stupidity.


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## SilverMaple (Jun 24, 2017)

egrogan said:


> I think what's so hard is that there is so much pent up anger and demand to find THE REASON why all this terrible stuff keeps happening, that people start grasping at straws and every additional issue is a chance to defend any number of "root causes" as the explanation. Clearly things are broken. And broken on many dimensions. It's hard to know who or what to blame at this point. I've got to admit, the cynic in me immediately read the POTN news and wondered if someone just wanted to prop up Pharaoh (who I love, by the way) by getting POTN out of the way. That's obviously crazy conspiracy theory type thinking, but everything seems so messed up right now crazy thoughts creep in...



They are different-enough sires they aren't really competing... POTN seemed pretty universally beloved. Good racehorse, sound, long, fluid stride, beautifully balanced, decent legs, and a lovely temperament. Those are things the industry desperately needs, and AP and POTN, while sire-offspring, would suit different mares. I think you have a point with people looking for reasons. Sometimes there just aren't any. These are horses-- huge animals with very delicate systems and fragile legs and tragedy follows them daily.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Empire Maker is still going strong.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

@SilverMaple, totally agree. And to be clear- that was just my emotional, knee jerk crazy reaction. I don't actually believe that, just to remove any thoughts that I'm a nutty conspiracy theorist here!! It's all just very sad.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Your not crazy or anything. The price of American Pharoah going up did enter my mind. But he is in a bit of a spot. It can only go so high without being among proven top sires and Justify.

There is no question Pioneer Of The Nile was a special horse. On and off the track. And agree his qualitys are very desirable. He was definitely a successful sire. This next is my opinion of course. It was his top side doing all the work. On the bottom you have to go back to Bold Ruler to find anyone of note. That is why I mentioned Empire Maker. Maybe he is the key to everything. Hopefully he will see even more quality mares that wanted Pioneer.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The Louisiana Derby is today. Coverage can be seen on NBC Sports. My selections are 4,6,8,10. If Countey House can get it tomorrow think he wins, if not WOW is the mostly likely.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

WOW....

:wink:


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

I haven't really looked at the race, cause I am working all weekend again. 😞 I will try to take a look at it soon.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Favorites are taking a beating so far at Fairgrounds.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Looking at it as best I can at work... The (4) and (10) look good, of course the (6) WOW. And the (8). Looking for a longshot? Try the (5) or the (9). The (5) especially. Jockey chose him over his stablemate (7) that he usually rides. So... (10) (5) (6) (4) maybe (8) or (9).


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

(10) to win, (6), (5), (4) and (9)


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

You had the (5) and I didn't, good call. I knew Tyler would get WOW beat. But can't take any of those in the Derby. Very disappointed in Country House. If he can improve at Fairgrounds that is bad.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

5 won... Wish I had gone with my hunch. 5, 10, 4, who was 4th? Country House? 

Can't wait for next weekend... I'm actually off Saturday. Looking forward to doing a better analysis of the races.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

And as much as I dislike Tyler, he did right by WOW. He stumbled and Tyler didn't push it risking his shot at the Derby.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The Sunland Derby. To be honest the main thing for me is how nice it is to have tracks like this have some Derby points and a spotlight. Of course that means you get invaders. Which Bib has done with the favorite (1) although he has been impressive, he really has beat what has turn out to be not much. But have to use. 

Along with everyone on the inside. So 1-5 are the selections for various small wheels. The (3) is the local sentimental choice. Will be on the lead, and may hang on for some. The (2) I think actually has a good chance . Along with the (4) the (5) is just counting on Johnny, which is always a good idea.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Really liking the (2) and the (5), also the (3) (4) and (1) to round out the top 5... The 3 has 8 wins in 10 races lifetime. Love the breeding on the (5) Storm Cat and AP Indy. And with Pletcher training, Velasquez aboard, definitely a contender. Like the breeding on (10), but probably not a contender based on race history. Rare to see Storm Cat so close in the breeding nowadays. The (2) is lightly raced, 3 wins from 4 starts lifetime. Has Unbridled and Storm Cat...a ways back.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Speaking of breeding. In the 4 th at Aqueduct today, a 0-4 horse went off at 11 to 1 in a claimer. His name was Know Point Given. Had to be one of his last as he has been retired for a few years now. He got second.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Here is the Sunland Derby replay. Those where some serious fractions and times 


https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/usa/sun/2019/3/24/11/sunland-park-derby-g3


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

That race really makes the (2) look good. Was up front at first, then stuck behind horses, went 3 or 4 wide, and still nearly won. Jockey lost that for him, imo. As to the (5), never count out Pletcher or Velasquez. The (10) was last, rallied for 5th. And the (1) clearly showed he is not a Derby contender.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

His races just have come back to not be key. That's a part of handicapping that is one of those hidden type things. More so in lower level in day to day racing but at times with the top level.

That's what is fun and profitable. Finding a horse that ran a pretty ho hum 3rd or 4th. But some digging turns up the top two won again stepping up next out. One he beat came back to win next out. But today is his chance and being overlooked.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Can't think of Derby time with him, https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-ra...elebrates-legacy-of-secretariat-meadow-stable


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The Florida Derby

1)Hidden Scroll Jockey Javier Castellano Trainer Bill Mott 5/2

2)Current Jockey Manuel Franco Trainer Todd Pletcher 15/1

3)Harvey Wallbanger Jockey Brian Hernandez Trainer Ken McPeek 15/1

4)Bourbon War Jockey Irad Ortiz Trainer Mark Henning 7/2

5)Everfast Jockey Chris Landeros Trainer Dale Romans 20/1

6)Hard Belle Jockey Jose Bastista Trainer Jamie Mejia 50/1

7)Maximum Security Jockey Luis Saez Trainer Jason Servis 9/2

8)Bodexpress Jockey Nik Juarez Trainer Gustavo Delgado 30/1

9)Code Of Honor Jockey John Velazquez Trainer Shug McGaughey 3/1

10)Union's Destiny Jockey Leonel Reyes Trainer Juan Avila 30/1

11)Garter and Tie Jockey Jeff Sanchez Trainer Ralph Nicks 15/1


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Yay... I was actually looking over the field right now, and about to post the list. Thanks for saving me the work. 😉 I'll post my thoughts shortly...


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Glad to do it.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Florida Derby- 

Gonna go ahead and put thoughts up. 1,4,9 are my win contenders. I actually think Hidden Scroll bounces back in a big way. Like Bourbon War as well. 

2,7,3 are my mix in on wheels. Good luck everyone. If I see tv coverage other than TVG I will pass on.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

NBC sports Saturday 6:00 est


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

@aubie I Intended to post sooner, got busy at work. Finally got some time, so... Florida Derby first.

(1) Hidden Scroll - my thought on him hasn't changed. Love this colt and his maiden win. His last race I personally believe was jockey error. Pushing him to keep the lead, in such fast quarter times. Obviously the trainer feels that was a bad ride, as he has opted for a different jockey. He is my winning pick. By the way, the colt he went such fast fractions with, Gladiator King, went on to win his next graded stakes by 4 1/2 lengths.
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-ra...or-king-goes-gate-to-wire-in-hutcheson-stakes

(2) Current - 6 races lifetime, 2 wins, 2 third, 2 off the board. Can't ever count out a Pletcher horse, but likely not a win contender. Has raced on both turf and dirt, seems like Pletcher is trying to figure out where he excells. A user for me in the top 4 or 5 but no more.

(3) Harvey Wallbanger - has 5 starts, 2 first, 3 second. Took him 4 starts to break his maiden, he was second three times. Then he won the Holy Bull Stakes back in February. McPeek is a good trainer, can't count his colt out of the top 4 or 5, but again I don't like him to win. 

(4) Bourbon War - 4 starts, 2 first,1 second, 1 fourth. Came in a strong closing second in the Fountain of Youth, I think he will like the added distance. A few more strides and he would have caught the win in the FoY, imo. Top 3 finish in this race.

(5) Everfast - 8 starts, 1 first, second, and third. The other 5 starts were off the board. He finished 2nd this year in the Holy Bull, but 8th in the Fountain of Youth. Probably not a contender in the top 4 or 5.

(6) Hard Belle - 13 starts, 1 first, second, and third. Very heavily raced. Not on my list for top 4 or 5. 

(7) Maximum Security - 3 starts, 3 wins lifetime. All at Gulfstream Park. Not against this level of competition thought. Not a win contender, but top 4 finisher imo. Like seeing the hometown horses take on the big guys.

(8) Bodexpress - 4 starts, 2 second, no wins yet. Another who has raced exclusively at Gulfstream Park tracks. In this race, probably not a top 4 or 5 finish.

(9) Code of Honor - 4 starts, 2 first, 1 second, 1 fourth. First in the Fountain of Youth, but almost lost to Bourbon War. Top 4 or 5 for sure, especially with Velasquez up. 

(10) Union's Destiny - 4 starts, 1 first, second and third. Was 6th in the Fountain of Youth. Not in my list for top 4 or 5.

(11) Garter and tie - 8 starts, 2 first, second and third. Was 6th in the Holy Bull. Not in my top 5.

To sum it up... 1 to win, also 4,7,9, and maybe throw in 2 or 3 to round out the top 5.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

It ok, certainly worth the wait as I really enjoyed.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

Kept up with the Dubai World Cup Carnival online throughout the morning, some great races. The World Cup didn't disappoint-nice to see how Thunder Snow has matured after his "amusing" Kentucky Derby experience.




How hard does Gunnavera try every time?? I really wish he'd get his Grade 1 win one of these days, but he's always right there.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

And for this year's Derby, Plus Que Parfait had to leave Louisiana for Dubai to qualify- this will help my fantasy derby stable in Winstar's contest, which has been pretty slow this season!


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Thanks for posting.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

So... I was way off on the 1. 😞 Really thought Hidden Scroll looked better than he seems to be in his debut. And I almost risked the 7 to win, but against those "big boys" I wasn't sure he had a legit chance. Oh, well... Can't win em all.


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## kewpalace (Jul 17, 2013)

cobra said:


> So... I was way off on the 1. Really thought Hidden Scroll looked better than he seems to be in his debut.


I was very disappointed in the ride Hidden Scroll got. What a terrible way to end his Derby chance. Even if he wouldn't have won this race, he should have been up there. Was so looking for him in the Derby. 

Maximum Security got a good ride had a great race. Well done for him.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

The last 2 races have not been good for him, both partly due to jockeys decisions. He is definitely out of the Derby trail, but I still plan to follow his career. I still think he has the talent, although not the experience needed.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The Santa Anita Derby


1)Roadster Jockey Mike Smith Trainer Bob Baffert 5/2

2)More Ice Jockey Geovanni Franco Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer 30/1

3)Nolo Contesto Jockey Joe Talamo Trainer John Sadler 6/1

4)Synthesis Jockey Rafael Bejarano Trainer George Papaprodromou 30/1

5)Instagrand Jockey Flavien Prat Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer 3/1

6)Game Winner Jockey Joel Rosario Trainer Bob Baffert 4/5


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The Wood Memorial


1)Tax Jockey Junior Alvarado Trainer Danny Gargan 9/2

2)Tactius Jockey Jose Ortiz Trainer Bill Mott 5/1

3)Hoffa's Union Jockey Dylan Davis Trainer Mark Casse 6/1

4)Haikal Jockey Rajiv Maragh Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin 7/2

5)Final Jeopardy Jockey Manny Franco Trainer Jason Servis 7/2

6)Overdeliver Jockey Kendrick Carmouche Trainer Todd Pletcher 20/1

7)Not That Brady Jockey Reylu Gutierrez Trainer Rudy Rodriguez 20/1

8)Grumps Little Tots Jockey Jose Lezcano Trainer Jason Servis 30/1

9)Math Wizard Jockey Eric Cancel Trainer Saffie Joseph 30/1

10)OutShine Jockey John Velazquez Trainer Todd Pletcher 6/1

11)Joevia Jockey Nik Juarez Trainer Gregory Sacco 30/1


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The Bluegrass Stakes


1)Somelikeithotbrown Jockey Thler Gaffalione Trainer Mike Maker 10/1

2)Vekoma Jockey Javier Castellano Trainer George Weaver 9/5

3)Signalman Jockey Brian Hernandez Trainer Kenny McPeek 5/1

4)Market King Jockey Jon Court. Trainer D Wayne Lukas 20/1

5)Chess Chief Jockey Paco Lopez Trainer Dallas Stewart 30/1

6)Dream Maker Jockey Florent Geroux Trainer Mark Casse 12/1

7)Admire Jockey Robby Albarado Trainer Dale Romans 15/1

8)Win Win Win Jockey Irad Ortiz Michael Trombetta 7/2

9)Sir Winston Jockey Julien Leparoux Trainer Marke Casse 15/1

10)Lucky Lee Jockey Chris Landeros Trainer John Servis 20/1

11)So Alive Jockey Luis Saez Trainer Tod Pletcher 15/1

12)Parsimony Jockey Mario Gutierrez Trainer Doug O'Neil 20/1

13)Moonster Jockey John McKee Trainer Dale Romans 30/1

14)Aquadini Jockey Corey Lanerie Trainer Dallas Stewart 30/1


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Santa Anita Derby:

Think this one is an easy win for (6) Game Winner. Other than that, it's a matter of guessing the others to fill out the top 4 or 5. (1) Roadster should be top 3 imo. (5) Instagrand should also be top 3. After that it's all guessing.

Frankly, I have not been overly impressed by any of the prospects so far this year.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Wood Memorial:

Let's see...

(1) Tax - definitely like to finish top 4 or 5. 4 starts, 2 first, 1 second and 1 third.

(2) Tacitus - 3 starts, was 4th in his maiden, then won the next 2. Definite top 5 finish. 

(3) Hoffas Union - very lightly raced. Won his maiden. Only 1 start. Not sure what to expect from him. 

(4) Haikal - 2nd in his maiden, won the next 3. 4 starts. Like this one's chances of winning. Definite top 5.

(5) Final Jeopardy - 3 starts, 2 first, 1 third. 

(6) Overdeliver - 2 starts, 1 first, 1 second.

(7) Not That Brady - 7 starts, 2 first, 2 second. Last outing finished 8th against Haikal. Probably not too 5 finish.

(8) Grumps little tots - took him 4 starts to win his maiden. Also 2 second and 1 third. 4 starts lifetime. Probably not top 5 finish.

(9) Math wizard - 7 starts, 2 first 1 second and 2 third. Has run mostly claiming, not against this level of competition. Probably not top 5.

(10) Outshine - never count out Pletcher or Velasquez, even from an outside post. 4 starts, 2 first, 1 second and 1 fifth. Definite top 5.

(11) Joevia - 2 starts, 1 first 2 second. Longshot top 5, if you wanna maybe cash in....


So basically (1)(2)(4)(10)(11)...


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

The Bluegrass Stakes:
Big field of 14...not many if any have run in such a large group. Going to be interesting to watch... Don't have alot of time to get into detail on this one, so basically (1) (2) (3) (4) and (8) are my top 5. Can't ever count Lukas out of the top 5. The (2) (3) and (8) seem most likely to have a chance to win. I didn't have a chance to look over all the entries in detail.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The Wood.

The (2) is the favorite although personally don't see 9/5, thinking it goes up a little. No way counting Javier out so a user for sure. Also going with the on again off again (6) at a price as a user. The (8) gets in there somewhere as well as the (9) Something about Julien at Keeneland.
Prices to use mixed in are the (3) as well as the (4) maybe the day will come when I stop putting D Wayne on tickets, but I doubt it. The (1) kinda makes a little sense. But , and I not just going against Tyler here. They did well winning the Jeff Ruby. But -and this is just with yesterday as a reference- Turfway horses didn't do well at all at Keeneland


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The Bluegrass 


The (2) is the favorite although personally don't see 9/5, thinking it goes up a little. No way counting Javier out so a user for sure. Also going with the on again off again (6) at a price as a user. The (8) gets in there somewhere as well as the (9) Something about Julien at Keeneland.
Prices to use mixed in are the (3) as well as the (4) maybe the day will come when I stop putting D Wayne on tickets, but I doubt it. The (1) kinda makes a little sense. But , and I not just going against Tyler here. They did well winning the Jeff Ruby. But -and this is just with yesterday as a reference- Turfway horses didn't do well at all at Keeneland.


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## EliRose (Aug 12, 2012)

So this might be of some interest to this thread. Have some baby Maximum Security! At this time he was just Baby Q, the last baby of the season and a particularly adorable and noteworthy one as well. He was the best baby to cuddle.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

@EliRose you knew Maximum Security as a foal? I was impressed by the way he won last race, also I was reading the Derby Dozen today, which included some interesting info on him. He's definitely on my watch list, along with Tacitus and Omaha Beach. It seems like a pretty even crop of 3 yo this year.

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kent...-april-9-2019-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Thank you for posting. Very nice.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The Arkansas Derby


1)Improbable Jockey Jose Ortiz Trainer Bob Baffert 8/5

2)Six Shooter Jockey David Cohen Trainer Paul Holthus 30/1

3)Omaha Beach Jockey Mike Smith Trainer Richard Mandella 2/1

4)Tikhvin Flew Jocky Tyler Baze Trainer Steve Asmussen 30/1

5)Laughing Fox Jockey Richard Santana Trainer Steve Asmussen 20/1

6)Gray Attempt Jockey Stewart Elliot Trainer William Fires 8/1

7)Galilean Jockey Flavien Prat Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer 10/1

8)Country House Jockey Joel Rossaro Trainer Bill Mott 12/1

9)One Flew South Jockey Calvin Borel Trainer Doug O'Neil 50/1

10)Jersey Agenda Jockey Ramon Vazquez Trainer Steve Asmussen 30/1

11)Long Range Today Jockey Jon Court Trainer Steve Asmussen 5/1


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## EliRose (Aug 12, 2012)

cobra said:


> @EliRose you knew Maximum Security as a foal? I was impressed by the way he won last race, also I was reading the Derby Dozen today, which included some interesting info on him. He's definitely on my watch list, along with Tacitus and Omaha Beach. It seems like a pretty even crop of 3 yo this year.
> 
> Derby Dozen - April 9, 2019 - Presented by Shadwell Farm - Steve Haskin's Derby Dozen


I worked with him and his dam from two days old until weaning. I believe I actually posted those pictures on HF at that time.

I have more than a few words to say about why he was looked at so poorly, that I will not repeat publicly. I will however say that there were certainly disagreements as to the quality of his family. IMO he was by _far_ the physical and mental standout of his breeder's 2016 colts, and the second best of their entire crop. Max looks and acts like a Flat Out, not a New Year's Day, and that's how I view him. He's the spitting image of his dam, who is the image of her brother, down to that gorgeous head.

Also have to laugh at the "over 100 horses" line in the Derby Dozen - more like over 200 just on the farm.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Thoughts on the Arkansas Derby:

Interesting that Asmussen has 4 horses entered. Last ditch attempt to get Derby points? There is only 1 of his 4 I really like. 

(1) Improbable - Baffert's entry. Was undefeated (3 for 3) before his last race in the Rebel - where he finished 2nd to Long Range Toddy, who coincidentally is the only Asmussen horse I really like here. Definite top 5. Even with (because of) the rail position, I do not like him to win. Can speculate that he didn't win his last race due to track issues and delays at Santa Anita and then being shipped cross country. But he simply failed to impress me. 

(2) Six Shooter - 10 starts, 3 first, 4 third. Possible top 5 if you want a longshot thrown in. 

(3) Omaha Beach - 6 starts, 2 first, 3 second, 1 third. Won the other division of the Rebel stakes last race. Definite top 5. Possible winner. Also, this race will decide alot for jockey Mike Smith. He has to choose between Omaha Beach and Roadster for the Kentucky Derby (if they both go). I'm sure Omaha Beach's performance will determine who he chooses to ride.

(4) Tikhvin Flew - 3 starts, 1 first, 1 third and 6th last time out against the likes of Haikal, Mind Control and Instagrand in the Gotham Stakes. Not on my top 5 here. The first Asmussen entry.

(5) Laughing Fox - 5 starts, 2 first. Was 7th in the Rebel. Not on my top 5. The 2nd of 4 Asmussen entries. 

(6) Gray Attempt - 6 starts, 4 first. That fact makes him intriguing, but the fact that he was last in the Southwest stakes against some of the same horses here (Long Range Toddy, Six Shooter, Jersy Agenda) makes me think he will not finish top 5. 

(7) Galilean - 5 starts, 3 first, 1 second, 1 third. Probably a top 5 finish. Was 3rd in the Rebel stakes, Long Range Toddy was 1st, Improbable 2nd. What are the chances history repeats? That depends (imo) on Omaha Beach.

(8) Country House - 5 starts, 1 first, 2 second. Was 4th in the Louisiana Derby to By My Standards, Spinoff, and Sueno. Probably not top 5.

(9) One Flew South - 2 starts, 1 first 1 fifth. Hasn't raced at this level before. Probably not a contender. 

(10) Jersey Agenda - 5 starts, 2 first, 1 second. 8th in the Southwest stakes, 5th in the Rebel stakes(Omaha Beach, Game Winner, Market King, Gunmetal Gray) . Not on my top 5. This is Asmussen 3rd entry. 

(11) Long Range Toddy - 7 starts, 4 first, 1 second, 1 third, 1 fourth. Won one of the Rebel stakes divisions against none other than Improbable. Probably my favorite to win. Definite top 5. Omaha Beach could take it from him, but I believe it will be one of them to win it. 

So long story short, (11) (3) (1) (7) and throw in the (2) or (9) for a longshot.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

I'll go with your selections. I keep waiting for the light bulb to come on for Country House. Woll sprinkle him in. But the reality is he probably isn't any good and needs to go down the class ladder. Probably to Grade III


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

I do like Mott as a trainer. I'm just not seeing Country House progressing like he needs to. Maybe that will change. But I don't personally see it happening soon. Hopefully I'm not steering you wrong. We all have our bad days.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

No your not steering me wrong. I think Improbable runs away with it, the switch to Jose Ortiz being the difference. That and he is more fit this round. I do want to see Long Range Toddy get some points and make it to the Derby. While I don't see him winning the Derby, I certainly wouldn't mind seeing Jon get his time in the sun.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

For the Lexington 

(3)(4) look to be the main contenders the 1,5,8 to wheel in


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Lexington:

(1) Shang - 5 starts, was 2nd his maiden race, and won the other 4 after that. Hasn't raced in a graded stakes yet, so not entirely sure what to expect from him. But a good longshot, if you want to play that game.

(2) Hawaiian Noises - 4 starts, was last his maiden race and won the next three. Another one who hasn't raced in a graded stakes. He does have Velasquez aboard. And Ward is the trainer. Not one to count out of the top 5.

(3) Sueno - 6 starts, 2 first, 2 second, 2 third. Was 2nd in the Southwest stakes and 3rd in the Louisiana Derby. Top 5 finish imo. 

(4) Anothertwistafate - 5 starts, 3 first, 1 second. Was 9th in his maiden but hasn't finished out of the top 2 since. Definitely one of the top 5.

(5) Harvey Wallbanger - 6 starts, 2 first, 3 second. Was 8th last time out in the Florida Derby. Probably not in my top 5.

(6) Chase the Ghost - 7 starts, 1 first, 2 second. Was 9th in the last race, Risen Star Stakes. Not in my top 5.

(7) Knicks Go - 8 starts, 2 first, 1 second, 1 third. Was 7th, 5th and 11th in his last 3 graded stakes. Not in my top 5.

(8) Owendale - 7 starts, 2 first, 1 second, 1 third. Was 8th in his only graded stakes (his most recent race). Not in my top 5.

(9) Zenden - 4 starts, 2 first, 1 second, 1 fourth. Probably top 5 finish.

(10) Roiland - 7 starts, 2 first, 1 second, 1 third. Probably not in my top 5.

I would probably go... (3) (4) (5)... and (1)(2). Might regret not throwing in the (9).


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Here is the final points standings. Some may opt not to run/scratch and there may be some that draw in. 

Rank Horse Trainer Points Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Tacitus Bill Mott 150 $610,000
2. Omaha Beach Richard Mandella 137.5 $1,050,000
3. Vekoma George Weaver 110 $747,600
4. Plus Que Parfait Brendan Walsh 104 $1,540,400
5. Roadster Bob Baffert 100 $636,000
6. By My Standards Bret Calhoun 100 $600,000
7. Maximum Security Jason Servis 100 $582,800
8. Game Winner Bob Baffert 85 $1,810,000
9. Code of Honor Shug McGaughey 74 $432,070
10. Haikal Kiaran McLaughlin 70 $322,500
11. Improbable Bob Baffert 65 $589,520
12. War of Will Mark Casse 60 $440,840
13. Long Range Toddy Steve Asmussen 53.5 $830,000
14. Tax Danny Gargan 52 $307,500
15. Cutting Humor Todd Pletcher 50 $462,467
16. Win Win Win Mike Trombetta 50 $350,000
17. Country House Bill Mott 50 $220,000
18. Gray Magician Peter Miller 41 $526,000
19. Spinoff Todd Pletcher 40 $224,000
20. Master Fencer (JPN) Koichi Tsunoda Japan Road to Derby $234,392
21. Bodexpress Gustavo Delgado 40 $188,000
22. Signalman Kenny McPeek 38 $496,840
23. Anothertwistafate Blaine Wright 38 $268,960
24. Sueno Keith Desormeaux 32 $285,000
25. Bourbon War Mark Hennig 31 $137,200
26. Instagrand Jerry Hollendorfer 30 $276,000
27. Mucho Gusto Bob Baffert 24 $286,800
28. Knicks Go Ben Colebrook 20 $675,085
29. Owendale Brad Cox 20 $124,000
30. Outshine Todd Pletcher


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Going to be an interesting Derby, purely from the standpoint of the lack of an overwhelming favorite. I can see it playing out several different ways, depending on post position,etc. 

Tacitus is definitely going to be on my top 5. 4 starts, 3 first, was 4th in his maiden. Looking at the chart for his maiden, it was a rough trip for him. Also, I really like his breeding. AP Indy, Unbridled, and Storm Cat all fairly close. Limited racing experience, but he has won 3 including 2 graded Stakes.

Omaha Beach and Roadster both looked good also. Waiting to see which one the jockey (Smith) chooses to ride. Whichever one he chooses will definitely be in my top 5. Whichever one he doesn't probably won't. 

Vekoma is also fairly lightly raced. 4 starts, 3 first, 1 third. Possible top 5. 

Plus Que Parfait had to leave the US to get the points needed to get in the Derby. 7 starts, 2 first, 1 second, 2 third. Was 5th and 13th in the 2 graded Stakes at Fairgrounds this year. Won overseas last time out. Probably not in my top 5.

By My Standards has 5 starts. 2 first, 2 second, 1 third. All at Fairgrounds. Not sure how he will handle being shipped and a new track. Probably not on my top 5. Could suprise me. 

Maximum Security is (I believe) the only unbeaten horse in the potential Derby field. However, all his races have been at 1 track, Gulfstream Park. How will he handle the travel, a new track, and the biggest field he has faced yet? Definitely one of my top 5. 

Game Winner was undefeated coming into his 3 yo season. He has finished 2nd his last two races (as a 3yo). Before seeing him run this year I would have said definitely a win contender. Now I say possible top 5.

Code of Honor has 5 starts, 2 first, 1 second, 1 third and 1 fourth. Not sure my thoughts on him, need to go back and watch his races. 

Haikal 5 starts, 3 first, 1 second, 1 third. He looks good, but so do alot of others. 

Improbable is the 2nd Baffert trainee that entered his 3yo season undefeated and has finished 2nd his last two races. Not sure what is going on there.

War of Will has been somewhat inconsistent imo. Some races he looks great and others not so much. 8 starts, 3 first, 1 second, 1 third. 9th in the Louisiana Derby. Probably not in my top 5.

Long Range Toddy 8 starts, 4 first, 1 second, 1 third, 1 fourth, 6th last race in the Arkansas Derby. Probably in my top 5.

I'm going to stop here for now, and I reserve the right to change my opinion after reviewing races, etc... However basically it seems fairly open with quite a few good horses but not any outstanding ones. Tacitus, Long Range Toddy, Maximum Security, Omaha Beach or else Roadster, and Code of Honor IF Velasquez rides.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

I can't remember if it was here or on another forum I was rough on Maximum Security after the Florida Derby. I do think he is a nice horse. And you really have to always look at the Florida Derby winner as they do very well in the Kentucky Derby. Especially years where a standout like American Pharoah or Justify are absent. His time wasn't great, especially for Gulfstream. However it was steady and going a mile and a quarter could be ok. 

I don't know what it is about Improbable that I keep clinging to. I just see a horse with a lot of talent, that gobbles up foes when asked. But there is always something that he just can't seem to overcome. He did like the wet for sure in the Arkansas. I like Omaha Beach but to be honest if Mike had been on Improbable and given him that trip, he is the winner Saturday. Now how much of this is his own making, I don't know. He may grow out of it. Gun Runner is one I can think of that did. 

Think Bob maybe playing a Justify like thing with Roadster. Never seemed worried about getting him points. Stuck him in the Santa Anita Derby with Game Winner I believe knowing he gets the win and your in trip. 

War of Will have not been that high on for some reason. I think different circumstances for him and he would be a better horse. Also have to look at the Fairground horses usually don't do well at Churchill. Even aforementioned Gun Runner could only get 3rd. 

The Wood winners have not done so hot in recent times either. How much stock to put in trends when each new race is an independent try is always a big question in handicapping. 

Code of Honor is one I am interested in. Saw Shug in an interview at Keeneland before a race where he was sending out a win. He was high on that horse, and Gabby asked him about Code Of Honor. He really almost beamed and said how pleased he was and tickled over his last work. Said he very pleased. Shug isn't the type to do that. 

Haikal I like, but the distance question looms large. 

I agree with above where the jockeys land is going to be huge. Maybe more so this year than any in recent memory. Draw as well. I don't see any in this bunch that can overcome 1-4 or the far outside. Pharoah won from the 18 and I believe Big Brown was the last from the 20. And none in this bunch can be confused with them. 

Anyway just some thoughts off the top of my head.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Gong back and reading Cobras post more came to mind

Plus Que Parfait just can't see . UAE horses just haven't done well the First Saturday in May. For whatever reason or combination of reasons. If Mendelssohn can't get it done, just don't see this one.

Game Winner. This one more and more is seeming like Bodiemister 2.0 . He is a nice horse don't get me wrong. But seems a little short. Which I really don't understand. Candy Ride up top, AP Indy on the bottom.

Long Range Toddy. As mentioned 6th in the Arkansas puts you way off the board in the Derby. Maybe gets wheeled in underneath. Would like to see it. Everything I've ever read and heard about Jon is that he is one of the nicest guys in racing, if not all of sport. I'm quick to point out jockeys that aren't, so seeing a good one have his day is certainly ok.

Taticus I think is a user. Wouldn't be a surprise winner. But that's this year I think. Nothing will be a surprise.


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## SilverMaple (Jun 24, 2017)

Omaha Beach looked really good to me in the Arkansas Derby. He's my pick on Derby Day, especially on an off track.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

Agree with @SilverMaple. And will be pulling for “Max” because of @EliRose! I really want War of Will to get it together but not sure it will happen. Tacitus is a likeable favorite; love when great race mares have great babies!


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Jose off, Irad on Improbable and other jockey shuffling 

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/...s-que-parfait-irad-ortiz-picks-up-improbable/


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/smith-chooses-omaha-beach-geroux-picks-up-roadster/


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Ok ... Gotta go with Mike and pick Omaha Beach over Roadster then... Gonna be a really interesting Derby.


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## EliRose (Aug 12, 2012)

Mandella was caught victory dancing next to Baffert at Clocker's Corner the other day. BB is not a happy camper, even as he goes into the Derby with a strong hand.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Some reports on works.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-ra...tucky-derby-workers-out-in-force-at-churchill


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The day after the Derby, May 5th Homecoming at Old Friends for those interested and in the area.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-ra...ds-to-host-15th-annual-homecoming-event-may-5


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The draw will be held tomorrow, but a look and information on the jockeys of this years Kentucky Derby 

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/233335/meet-the-jockeys-of-the-2019-kentucky-derby

Some information on the draw and link if someone wants to watch live.

https://www.nj.com/sports/2019/04/k...ive-stream-latest-odds-on-saturdays-race.html


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

And because it's Derby week, here's Joe Drape's most recent: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/29/sports/horse-deaths-kentucky-derby.html


Reading the comments section made me so sad.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Going to add the Kentucky Oaks in as well.

The Kentucky Oaks 3 year old fillies 1 1/8 mile Friday May 3. NBC has the coverage.


1)Out For A Spin Jockey Irad Ortiz Trainer Dallas Stewart 15/1

2)Chocolate Kisses Jockey Tyler Gaffalione Trainer Mark Casse 20/1

3)Lady Apple Jockey Ricardo Santana Trainer Steve Asmussen 20/1

4)Bellafina Jockey Flavin Prat Trainer Simon Callaghan 2/1

5)Flor de La Mar Jockey Joel Rosario Trainer Bob Baffert 20/1

6)Positive Spirit Jockey Manny Franco Trainer Rodolphe Brisset 30/1

7)Jaywalk Jockey Javier Castellano Trainer John Servis 8/1

8)Motion Emotion Jockey Mike Smith Trainer Tom Van Berg 15/1

9)Liora Jockey Channing Hill Trainer Wayne Catalano 20/1

10)Champagne Anyone Jocky Chris Landeros Trainer Ian Wilkes 6/1

11)Jeltrin Jockey Luis Saez Trainer Alexis Delgado 15/1

12)Street Band Jockey Sophie Doyle Trainer Larry Jones 15/1

13)Serengeti Express Jockey James Graham Trainer Tom Amoss 8/1

14)Restless Rider Jockey Brian Hernandez Trainer Kenny McPeek 6/1


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

aubie said:


> The draw will be held tomorrow, but a look and information on the jockeys of this years Kentucky Derby
> 
> https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/233335/meet-the-jockeys-of-the-2019-kentucky-derby
> 
> ...


Made me sad also. And mad that Santa Anita let anyone from peta be involved.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Sorry meant to quote you, not me. Mis mashed.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Schedule 

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-ra...n-lead-busy-week-of-radio-television-coverage


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Here it is The Kentucky Derby 

Saturday May 4th Churchill Downs


1)War Of Wiil Jockey Tyler Gaffalione Trainer Mark Casse 20/1

2)Tax Jockey Junior Alvarado Trainer Danny Gargan 20/1

3)By May Standards Jockey Gabriel Saez Trainer Bret Calhoun 20/1

4)Gray Magician Jockey Drayden Van **** Trainer Peter Miller 50/1

5)Improbable Jockey Irad Ortiz Trainer Bob Baffert 6/1

6)Vekoma Jockey Javier Castellano Trainer George Weaver 20/1

7)Maximum Security Jockey Luis Saez Trainer Jason Servis 10/1

8)Tacitus Jockey Jose Ortiz Trainer Bill Mott 10/1

9)Plus Que Parfait Jockey Ricardo Santana Trainer Brendan Walsh 30/1

10)Cutting Humor Jockey TBA Trainer Todd Pletcher 30/1

11)Haikal Jockey Rajiv Maragh Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin 30/1

12)Omaha Beach Jockey Mike Smith Trainer Richard Mandella 4/1

13)Code Of Honor Jockey John Velazquez Trainer Shug McGaughey 15/1

14)Win Win Win Jockey Julian Pimental Trainer Michael Trombetta 15/1

15)Master Fencer Jockey Julian Leparoux Trainer Koichi Tsunoda(JPN) 50/1

16)Game Winner Jockey Joel Rosario Trainer Bob Baffert 5/1

17)Roadster Jockey Florent Geroux Trainer Bob Baffert 6/1

18)Long Range Toddy Jockey Jon Court Trainer Steve Asmussen 30/1

19)Spinoff Jockey Manny Franco Trainer Todd Pletcher 30/1

20)Countey House Jockey Flavin Prat Trainer Bill Mott 30/1


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

Thought of you @EliRose when I read this article on where this year's Derby starters were born and raised: https://www.kentucky.com/sports/horses/kentucky-derby/article229133089.html


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Changes everything and just got even harder

https://sports.yahoo.com/kentucky-derby-favorite-omaha-beach-scratches-from-race-220807219.html


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## Filou (Jan 16, 2014)

Certainly interesting now... 
Baffert now has 3 horses, all 5/1, 6/1...
I'm holding out for Sueno.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

I wasn't on the Omaha Beach wagon but it's always sad to see a horse have a physical problem in the days right before the Derby. Looks like another is on his way out with an abscess.

As always, I learned a lot from Steve Haskin's latest column.

Were I submitting a wager today, I'd go for the following super:
-Tacitus
-War of Will
-Country House
-Win Win Win

Hoping for good health and good weather the rest of the week.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Haikal doubtful 

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/233428/haikal-being-treated-for-foot-abscess


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

I wasn't really crazy about Omaha, although certainly a nice horse and logical favorite. Mike was the reason for me. It just seemed against "better" top contenders, Omaha won because of the trip as much as talent.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

There really aren't any standouts in this field. This year I believe it's really going to come down to the small stuff like jockey, trip, track condition. I'm going to look closer tomorrow, take a look at past races, especially the ones where there are multiple Derby entries in the field. 

Having said that, just off the top of my head, Tacitus, Maximum Security, By My Standards, Vekoma are probably going to be in my top 5. Code of Honor too probably, due to Velasquez aboard.

Haikal would have been, but I doubt he runs. Omaha Beach would have been, mainly due to Mike riding him. I feel bad that he now doesn't have a mount in the Derby. Wonder if anyone will try to enlist his help. I doubt Baffert will call him back for Roadster, even though that would help his chances.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Oh, and Long Range Toddy, if he ever gets his head in the game he could be a threat. I just haven't been impressed by his last couple races.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Baffert said he was sticking with Florent. The right thing to do and Florent is no slouch by any means. He had a nice Keeneland meet as well.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Instagrand will be going in the Pat Day Mile. Should be interesting. Couldn't catch Game Winner or Roadster in the Snata Anita Derby to gain points. Just keep think better management and this horse makes the Derby.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Added race- the Kentucky Oaks - Friday


If she likes the Distance, it's all about the (4) Bellafina. A deserving favorite having already won three Grade I . Definitely the key for wheels.

The (7) Jaywalk is a Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies winner and divisional champ. But she has been disappointing her last couple of outings. Was that her peak?

The (13) Serengeti Express had some bleeding her last out in the Fair Grounds Oaks. Received treatment and posted snappy works since. Is she back in form?

The (10) just fits. And she pressed pace and closed into it at Gulfstream. Hard to do.

The (14)hasn't been out of the exacta. Can't see ignoring that. Although the post is less than desirable.

Neither has the (8) though admittedly against not as tough but she really hasn't done anything wrong. Likes and should be on the lead. How much can Mike control the pace, IDK. But let's be honest no way I cutting him.

Some others- The (3) seems to be on the improve, The (1) did win the Ashland. The (5) appears up against it but it's Baffert. The (12) is a user. Won that aforementioned Fairground Oaks. And has some hunch factors going for her. I like Sophie and the job she is doing with her. Trained by Larry Jones who does great work with fillies and in this race. She is out of a Street Cry mare for all the Zenyatta and Winx fans.

Hopefully this helps put something together. Seems like a wide open race. My hunch is that Jaywalk has leveled off. If really pressed I don't think she hits the board. But cya.
A few bucks across the board on some prices like the 1,3,5 not a bad idea.


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## JCnGrace (Apr 28, 2013)

I'm all ready to hunker down in front of the TV for the next 2 days!


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Yet another change. Mike Smith has a mount now. And we should be hearing about Haikal soon, whether or not they will race tomorrow.


https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-ra...smith-to-ride-cutting-humor-in-kentucky-derby


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

I get their connection with Mike and what Mikes talents are. But if where me I wouldn't have done it. 

Corey is currently the leading rider at Churchill where he has won the riding title there forever. If I'm not mistaken won more riding titles and races there than Mr Churchill, Pat Day, who has a statue out front and a race named after him on Derby day. 

But more importantly than that it just doesn't seem right.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

In preparation for the Oaks, my favorite


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Okay - first breakdown, the Oaks. Have to get this one done first since the race is today. 

To me, this is all about the (4) Bellafina. On paper she looks great, 6 wins in 8 starts. Was 2nd in her maiden race. Has won every race since, with 1 exception. And this is what makes me look twice, the only time she has come to Churchill Downs (Breeders cup juvenile fillies last November) she was 4th. 4 of her 6 wins have come at Santa Anita. The first 2 wins were at Del Mar. Can she travel and bring her A game? This race is hers to lose...

(1)Out for a Spin - 5 starts, 3 first, 1 third, 1 fifth. Has won one grade 1 stakes race. The rest were not stakes races. 

(2) Chocolate Kisses - 8 starts, 3 first, 1 second, 1 third. 6th in her most recent race, with Out for a Spin, Restless Rider, and Jaywalk finishing 1,2,3 in that race. She did win the Honeybee. She is a come from behind closer, so anything is possible... Loved watching her move to come from way out of it to win the Honeybee.

(3)Lady Apple - 7 starts, 3 first, 2 second, 2 fifth. Had 2 second, 2 fifth place finishes in her 2 yo season. Has won all 3 races this year, all at Oaklawn Park. One of those 3 was a stakes race, where she beat Motion Emotion. 

(4) Bellafina - already discussed her above...this is hers to lose, imo.

(5)Flor de La Mar - this filly is super lightly raced. 3 starts, all on 2019, all at Santa Anita. Won her maiden, 5th in a claiming race, then 2nd in the Santa Anita Oaks to Bellafina. That was a 4 horse field. Not sure what to expect from her in her first big field of 14. 

(6) Positive Spirit - 7 starts, 2 first, 2 second, 1 third. 2nd most recently in the Gazelle stakes to Always Shopping (not in the Oaks). 8th (last) in the Rachel Alexandra stakes to Serengeti Empress, Liora, Street Band.

(7) Jaywalk - 7 starts, 4 first, 1 second, 1 third. Had an amazing race back in November and beat Bellafina, Serengeti Empress, etc. Hasn't shown the same form after that race. Has been a close second in some. This year, in his two starts he has finished 3rd in the Ashland to Out for a spin and Restless Rider and 4th in the Davona Dale to Jeltrin and Champagne Anyone.

(8) Motion Emotion - 6 starts, 2 first, 2 second. Took 3 tries to break maiden win. 4th and 9th the first 2 races as a 2 yo. 2nd in the Honeybee to Chocolate Kisses, also second in the Fantasy to Lady Apple. Those are her only 2 stakes starts.

(9)Liora - 7 starts, 2 first, 2 second, 1 third, 2 fourth. Second this year in both of her 2 starts. In the Rachel Alexandra to Serengeti Empress, and in the Fair Ground Oaks to Street Band.

(10) Champagne Anyone - 7 starts, 3 first, 3 third, 1 fourth. Most recent, 3rd in the Devona Dale to Jeltrin and Cookie dough. And 1st in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. 

(11)Jeltrin - 6 starts, 2 first, 1 second, 1 third, 2 fourth. Won the Davona Dale and 
4th in the Forward Gal this year.

(12)Street Band - 8 starts, 3 first, 2 third. Most recently she won the Fair Ground Oaks, 4th in the Rachel Alexandra. 

(13) Serengeti Empress - 7 starts, 4 wins. One 4th, two 7th. Won the Rachel Alexandra, looked awesome. Came back to the Fair Ground Oaks and was last (7th). Was bleeding after the race. If she is in top form, she could be a real contender. Hopefully, they wouldn't run her if she's not in good shape. Absolutely love her breeding. Distorted humor, Bernardini, Seattle Slew.

(14) Restless Rider - 7 starts, 3 first,4 second. Definitely a game little filly. Has been second in her last 3 starts to Out for a Spin (Ashland), Liora (Golden Rod), and 
Jaywalk (Breeder cup juvenile). She has only raced once in her 3 yo season, the Ashland April 6th. The race before that was all the way back in November of 2018. Why the long layoff? Will that help or hurt her? Distorted humor, Danzig, Unbridled bloodline.

To sum it up, the (4) should win, baring bad luck at Churchill Downs. I like the (13) if she looks in good condition. Won't know till I see her in paddock. (14) is a user in the top 5. Throw in the (9) and (12) to round out the top 5. Or more likely for me, throw in the (2) as a longshot.

(4) (13) (14) (2) (9) are my final pics...


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Haikal is officially out.. 

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-ra...t-abscess-forces-haikal-out-of-kentucky-derby

And Omaha Beach had a successful surgery...

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-ra...beach-undergoes-successful-epiglottis-surgery


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

Gosh @aubie, how was Rachel 10 years ago?! That makes me feel so old.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

aubie said:


> In preparation for the Oaks, my favorite


That was the year Mine that Bird came from last to win the Derby, then Rachel Alexandra entered the Preakness and Mine that Bird couldn't beat her, he was second...wonder if I can find video of the Preakness....


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

I think I may have posted this before, but here was Rachel at Saratoga after the final race of her career. Bittersweet in that she wasn't headed to the winner's circle, but I was standing almost alone on the rail near the top of the stretch when she was heading back to the barns, and got shivers when she walked passed me.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

It is hard to believe she is 10. These last 10 years we have seen some unusually special horses. And special moments.

That was Mine That Birds year. She beat him in the Preakness and beat the Belmont winner in the Haskell. Mine That Bird was such w weird deal to me all the way around. If Rachel's owners had run her in the Derby he wouldn't even be a story or remembered. He would not get in the Derby today, wouldn't have had enough points. 

I like Calvin but at the time was sad Chantal didn't get the chance. MTBs wins came from Canada withs her aboard. 

I did think NBC going on and on about his trainer was in poor taste.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

Woohoo Serengeti Empress! My pick :grin:


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

cobra said:


> Okay - first breakdown, the Oaks. Have to get this one done first since the race is today.
> 
> To me, this is all about the (4) Bellafina. On paper she looks great, 6 wins in 8 starts. Was 2nd in her maiden race. Has won every race since, with 1 exception. And this is what makes me look twice, the only time she has come to Churchill Downs (Breeders cup juvenile fillies last November) she was 4th. 4 of her 6 wins have come at Santa Anita. The first 2 wins were at Del Mar. Can she travel and bring her A game? This race is hers to lose...
> 
> ...


Great job. You give out a $878.00 exacta


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

egrogan said:


> Woohoo Serengeti Empress! My pick :grin:


And it was a good one. $28.00 winner for every $2 bucks you spend. That gets new shoes all day long. Nicely done.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

aubie said:


> And it was a good one. $28.00 winner for every $2 bucks you spend. That gets new shoes all day long. Nicely done.


Well, a $2 show bet is usually good for...your next $2 show bet, and maybe a pretzel if you’re lucky like this time :wink:

Hoping everyone runs well and comes home safe tomorrow. Tacitus-WOW-Country House/By my Standards/Win Win Win


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

I don't know if everyone heard that the horse that clipped heels and flipped is ok, and Manny is ok as well.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

^^So glad for that!!


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Right now legal pad out, pen in hand. I'm narrowing it down, the first round of cuts for me.

1)Like the horse but despise the jockey, and hate the post.

2)Junior Alvarado quits to much- recently got days for it- to put on Derby tickets

4)Still eligible I believe for N2. That's a N Nope for me.

9)Trainer Walsh has really had a nice long steady success. But UAE Runners don't do well and this one just doesn't have enough to change that.

14)Nice enough horse to use if there is something you like. Falls under you can't use them all category for me.

15)Love Julian. Like that Japan got a horse in, just not enough there to endorse.

19)Weird cutting Pletcher horse. Admittedly should have Cutting Humor in here, but Mikes on him.

21)Not taking the Also Eligible

Flag Quote


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Ok, Derby breakdown...

(1) War of Will - 8 starts, 3 first, 1 second, 1 third. Most recent race, 9th on the Louisiana Derby to By My Standards Spinoff, Sueno. The race before that he won the Risen Star Stakes over Country House, Plus Que Parfait.

(2) Tax - 5 starts, 2 first 2 second 1 third. 2nd in Wood Memorial to Tacitus, won the Withers (no other horses in the Withers are in the Derby), 3rd in the Remsen (again, no other horses from that race are in the Derby). 

(3) By My Standards - 5 starts - 2 first, 2 second, 1 third. Won the only Stakes he entered, the Louisiana Derby. He beat War of Will, Spinoff, Country House. Bit of an unknown having only raced 1 big race, but he sure looked good doing it.

(4) Gray Magician - 8 starts, 1 first, 3 second, 2 third. Qualified by going to Dubai and finishing second to Plus Que Parfait. Not seeing him in the top 5, imo.

(5) Improbable - 5 starts, entered this season undefeated 3 for 3. Has finished second both races this year, in the Rebel to Long Range Toddy, and in the Arkansas to Omaha Beach. He did beat Country House and Long Range Toddy in the Arkansas. 

(6) Vekoma - 4 starts, 3 first, 1 third. Won the Blue Grass (Win Win Win) and the Nashua. 3rd in the Fountain of Youth to Code of Honor and Bourbon War. 

(7) Maximum Security - the only undefeated horse in the race. 4 for 4 lifetime. Only 1 stakes race, the Florida Derby where he beat Bodexpress, Code of Honor. Bit of a question mark with the limited experience in big races, but he looked good winning the Florida Derby. If he travels well, he's one to watch...

(8) Tacitus - 4 starts, 3 first, 1 fourth. Was 4th in his maiden, won ever since. 2 wins this season at Wood Memorial (Tax) and Tampa Bay Derby (Win Win Win). Really like this colt. 

(9) Plus Que Parfait - 7 starts, 2 first, 1 second, 2 third. Went to Dubai and won the UAE to qualify for the Derby. Was also 13th in the Risen Star Stakes and 5th in the LeComte Stakes this year. Don't see him top 5, imo.

(10) Cutting Humor - 6 starts, 2 first, 2 second, 1 third. Won the Sunland Derby, 7th in the Southwest stakes, Long Range Toddy was 3rd. Personally I don't see how the jockey change will help him. Also personally, I don't have him in my top 5.

(11) Haikal - unfortunately had to scratch due to hoof abscess. Would have been in my top 5. Glad the trainer and owners put his well being above their desire to win a Derby.

(12) Omaha Beach - Also scratched. Had successful surgery on his airway yesterday. Very glad that the owners and trainer put his health first. His issues were minor, and sad to say many would have been tempted to keep him in.

(13) Code of Honor - 5 starts, 2 first, 2 second, 1 third, 1 fourth. Won the Fountain of Youth, 3rd in the Florida Derby to Maximum Security and Bodexpress. Probably a top 5, especially with Velasquez aboard.

(14) Win Win Win - 6 starts, 3 first, 1 second, 1 third. 2nd in the Blue Grass, 3rd in the Tampa Bay Derby. Possible top 5, but not a top 2 imo.

(15) Master Fencer - 6 starts, 2 first, 2 second. Historically horses haven't won the Derby traveling over from Japan. 

(16) Game Winner - 6 starts. Won all 4 of his 2 yo starts. Entered 2019 undefeated. Has been second both races this year. Santa Anita to Roadster. Rebel div2 to Omaha Beach. 

(17) Roadster - 4 starts, 3 first, 1 third. Won the Santa Anita over Game Winner, his only graded stakes race. Impressive win, but can he repeat it in a big field?

(18) Long Range Toddy - 8 starts, 4 first, 1 second, 1 third. 3rd in the Southwest, won the Rebel div1, 6th in the Arkansas. I am puzzled by this horse. He has the breeding to be great, and run well in the shop, but he absolutely did not fire in the Arkansas. His Rebel win was great. I'm still thinking top 5 for him.

(19) Spinoff - 4 starts, 2 first, 1 second, 1 third. Was 2nd in the Louisiana Derby to By My Standards. His only stakes race this year. 

(20) Country House - 6 starts, 1 first, 2 second, 1 third. 3rd in the Arkansas, 4th in the Louisiana, 2nd in the Risen Star. With all the entries, and his outside post, definitely not in my top 5.

(21) Bodexpress - 5 starts, 3 second. 2nd in the Florida Derby, his only stakes race. Definitely not in my top 5.

Be back in a bit to sum up my final choices...


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Here is where I'm at right now

I'm with you on Country House he is below the cut line. But at 62/1 he falls in the what the heck put $2 bucks on him.
In that regard the (18) fits there for me. Would love to see Jon win. Another one that gets $2 bucks. If these type horses does win, it covers or at least mostly your day.
Right now I am still on Improbable as my top pick. But have to use others today. That will be the (8) Tacticus, the (17) Roadster and the (13)
The mix ins right now are the (3)(6)(7)
I know I am missing something on Maximum Security. I get good Beyers but when I see his race at Gulfstream in Florida Derby I see slow. Which at that track worries me.
Flag Quote
ReplyQuote


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Another update on the horse that flipped yesterday if you didn't see. She ate up last night and this morning. Went for a jog this morning and is perfectly fine.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The (6)


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

:rofl:

I miss that show for so many reasons!


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Ugggh NBC


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

egrogan said:


> :rofl:
> 
> I miss that show for so many reasons!


I get it was part of the joke, but in the case today Javier is far far far from a bug boy. I am not one to ever leave him off.


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## Filou (Jan 16, 2014)

I'd love to see Will of War and Roadster pounding down the stretch. I don't think it will be likely... but I can dream, it would just look so cool with the way they run and their big blazes. 

I still like Roadster off the other 2 of bobs horses. I feel like Game Winner was a little too mentally immature in the warmups I saw a few days ago, looking around a bit, not as focused, though fast.

Who cares if the horse wins all it's races, with Maximum Security I see slow too, I bet he's past his prime and it's his turn to loose rather than win. Even if he has won on a sloppy track

My choice for the underdogs is Long Range Toddy and Bodexpress. 

I think one of the things that's tricky here is the different running styles, what strategy will be used by bob with 3 horses he can shuffle around with?
Who will get stuck in the pack, will the horse who breaks best maintain 1st (I don't think so), who can sit back at the beginning and step it up at the end- without being bothered by having mud flung at them. 

I can't choose, I also like Vekoma, Improbable... But I'm not seeing that hype with Tacitus. 

Anyway, I think the good ones will be good, but deciding a winner this year isn't obvious to me, I think there could be that random second of movement that makes the race, who will be in the right spot when they move?


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Yup this year is a wheelapaloza to get the right combination.

I get Tacticus. Maybe not as favorite. His Wood was nice, he overcome some trouble. Although Wood winners haven't done all that well lately. And Pedigree. By Tapit with Unbridled and Storm Cat on bottom. That says distance no problem/ run all day. If I had to guess how it will go thinking he comes hard late and is the horse everyone starts talking about for the Belmont. If he gets all the way there IDK.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The Pat Day Mile up next. I was incorrect Pat still holds the wins record.

This race is full of horses we covered on this road.


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## Filou (Jan 16, 2014)

Liking War of Will as much as I did it's hard to see him cut off and kicked behind like that, but it's racing...


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

Just no words for this.


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## Filou (Jan 16, 2014)

Historical moment for the Kentucky Derby.


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## Dixiesmom (May 26, 2013)

Don't agree


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## Filou (Jan 16, 2014)

I can't wait for all those clips to start showing up of other times horse have darted across the lanes, bumped other horses from the gate, or whatever else happened along the way to the finish line and they haven't DQ'd the horse.
Interesting that they choose to do it now. Wonder how they will go forward in the future.


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## Dixiesmom (May 26, 2013)

It happened well before they hit the stretch, and once he settled, Maximum Security pulled away easily from the field. And I don't really feel it affected the horse who "won" - some of the others maybe though they were slowing anyway it seemed, but the one who filed the claim didn't appear to be bothered enough to keep him from winning on his own. Even my non horse person husband called B.S.


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## BlindHorseEnthusiast4582 (Apr 11, 2016)

I'm with those who don't agree with the decision. As Filou said, horses are always getting cut off and bumped and stumbling, it is nothing new, so why disqualify the winner now when it wasn't even an intentional sabotage by the jockey? Everyone on the new winning team was going on about how they won the Kentucky Derby and they're so proud, but in my mind they didn't win anything. Sorry, not sorry.


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## knightrider (Jun 27, 2014)

I agree also. I felt the decision was way wrong. Maximum Security was clearly running in front, was the fastest horse, and should have won. My heart aches for Jason Servis and Luis Saez.


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## gottatrot (Jan 9, 2011)

Maximum Security should have won the race.

However, I'm going to take the unpopular opinion here and say he should have been disqualified because of the jockey. When I see how the jockey was riding, I don't believe the horse spooked and it was entirely rider error. 

When you look at the horse just before he went wide, he was angled with his head looking around the inside, but the jockey's head and body were pointing out toward the outside. The jockey's head is to the right of the horse's head, and his torso is not aligned around the curve with the horse, but is pointing toward the outside. So he was directing the horse to go wide out of the muddy inner lane, and to do so that close to the horse behind was very dangerous. 

The horse behind ended up with his front legs between Maximum Security's hind legs, and they were just lucky that Maximum Security didn't get a heel bulb or tendon stepped on. Which would have probably sent one horse or the other to the ground. 

The action sent most of the field wide, but I don't think it affected the outcome of the race, however, it was a dangerous thing to do and I believe purposeful, so I do believe the jockey should have been disqualified. Too bad that affected the fastest horse and the outcome. In my opinion the jockey's attitude was to give his horse the best trip at all costs, even if it meant putting others in danger.


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## boots (Jan 16, 2012)

I suspect Maximum Securities jockey didn't pay enough attention when he had the horse go wide on that turn. It would have been a good decision if they had been clear, but they weren't. 

Small mistake with really big consequences. 

I don't think it effected the outcome, though. The one horse had a bad trip from the start. 

We'll never know.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

I think it was the right call as well. To be honest I didn't think they would make it. 

I know Maximum Security has fans here. And that I may have come across as poo pooing him. I did point out he had good figures and the Florida Derby angle. But was puzzled by it. If it came across as poo pooing it wasn't intended as such. I was heartbroken seeing him without his saddle cloth standing by himself. And for his owners. 

No question he was the best horse today nor do I think Country House was going to get there. I don't buy the jocks explanation. As mentioned his body but also don't buy a horse spooked by crowd ducks toward it instead of where he was looking towards the rail. 

This could have been a disaster. And why the rules are in place.


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## horseylover1_1 (Feb 13, 2008)

I live in the Louisville area so my entire FB feed is blowing up. 

Best horse didn't win. 

I'm sure whoever made the call didn't make the decision lightly.. and if it had been any other horse other than the winner, people wouldn't be having a fit. I can't even say they would have called for a review in that case. IDK. I have mixed feelings about it. I see both sides.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Unfortunately I'm seeing a lot of nonsense on other forums. 

The "fix" was in

"They" didn't want another triple crown 

"They" made a lot of money.

Etc, etc.


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## JCnGrace (Apr 28, 2013)

I would have agreed with the dispute if War of Will's team had lodged the complaint although I've seen them let the finish order stand with worse interference than there was today. Country House's team had no reason to file the complaint and they shouldn't have won the dispute or the KY Derby. And I feel this way even though my picks were War of Will and Improbable.


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## gottatrot (Jan 9, 2011)

To me this photo shows why someone needed to make an objection. There were several horses that were interfered with so it could have been made by a few different people. I don't think it's that Country House deserved to win, but don't see it as a dispute between Country House and Maximum Security, but rather a rules/safety issue. Maximum Security had to be DQ'd, regardless of who benefited or didn't.
If horses were allowed to cut others off like this, racing would be a much deadlier sport.


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## Tazzie (Nov 8, 2011)

I agreed with the call.

A lot of people whine and scream that we have to make horse racing safer. Then when a call is made BECAUSE of safety, everyone is up in arms. I don’t think the jockey intentionally knew he was going to interfere, but that could have led to a really ugly pile up. And PETA would have been having a field day proving horse racing was dangerous once again.


A few years ago a trainer said “the jockeys are our eyes on the field. It’s up to them to bring up dangerous situations.”


Well, Country House’s jockey did that. And now he’s getting flamed. Do I feel it was a bit scummy that the horse that has now won put the inquiry in? Yes. But I support the decision.


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## boots (Jan 16, 2012)

Mr West was the model of class when he spoke of the decision. If there is a Sportsman of the Year award, he is the winner.


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## horseylover1_1 (Feb 13, 2008)

boots said:


> Mr West was the model of class when he spoke of the decision. If there is a Sportsman of the Year award, he is the winner.


Is that Maximum Securitys owner?


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Yes along with his wife.


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## Filou (Jan 16, 2014)

I am of the impression that before Maximum Security lofted across those 4 lanes that there were 3 horses all within a head of one another. with nothing to stop them but each other. I think they were all slowed down by it and that let others sneak through the cracks. I felt that Country House was not affected by it, he was never bumped into nor had his lane impeded. 
I don't think it was safe. I don't believe it was Country House's to win. I don't care what call they make, I can see both sides.


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## knightrider (Jun 27, 2014)

You all changed my mind and helped me understand exactly what happened and what the stewards had to do. To me, this is the perfect explanation:

https://www.nbcsports.com/video/2019-kentucky-derby-maximum-security-dq-country-house-wins

Thank you @gottatrot for that insightful photo! 

Time Magazine yesterday wrote that almost 2 dozen horses have been killed racing at Santa Anita since December and in 2018 in US and Canada an average of 10 thoroughbreds a week die in racing accidents. Right now, the racing community wants to seriously think about safety. I certainly don't want to see any more horses killed.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)




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## SilverMaple (Jun 24, 2017)

There was very nearly a huge wreck, likely resulting in injury and death to several horses, much less jockeys. It's heartbreaking for Maximum Security's connections, but it looks like rider error. A pileup at the top of the stretch on Derby Day would be catastrophic to racing. The bigger fault is on Churchill Downs for continuing to allow such a huge field, setting up more contact, less room, and larger potential for accidents. Fourteen horses is plenty. 

Whether you agree with the Stewards' decision or not, we can all be so thankful several horses didn't die yesterday. If War of Will hadn't stayed up, he would have taken half the close field down with him, and nobody would even care who had won that race.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

No Preakness for Maximum Security.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-ra...r-west-says-no-preakness-for-maximum-security


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## SilverMaple (Jun 24, 2017)

^ Good call. Why wheel a nice colt who ran his heart out back in two weeks for no reason? Save him for the later summer campaign.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Which, just me thinking, skips the Belmont and points towards the Haskell. Where I'm thinking Omaha Beach makes his return as well.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

This will likely be the most discussed Derby for years to come. More so than the recent triple crown winners. 

Clearly, in my opinion, the best horse did not win. Maximum Security was clearly the best horse that day, on that track in the slop. No other horses were going to catch him, even if he had not swerved out 2 lanes. So I feel bad for the West's (owners) and the trainer and their connections. 

However....he did impede the progress of the (18) and (1) and (21). Even though there was (in my opinion) no way any of them were catching him, it was still grounds for DQ. He clearly ended up in front of (1) and caused him to have to steady. 

The real question for me is...why did MS do that? Did he shy, as the jockey stated, from the fans in the infield? Or was it done purposely? Either way, the right call was made - although a heartbreaking call for Maximum Security and company. 

Also, the delay in posting the inquiry sign did not look good by the stewards. There were a few minutes where no one knew there was an inquiry or objection. 

I look forward to following Maximum Security in his future races. And the Preakness is definitely going to have a different winner...no chance for a triple crown winner this year. Not that there was to begin with, imo....


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The discussion part is sad but unfortunately probably true.

I was wondering about intent as well. Going to post the video. Around the two minute mark is where stuff starts to happen. Wish the pictures had a time frame with it. Anyway it looks like Saez was all over the place. He dove down to the rail when the (13) made his move then came back out. Even closer to the wire from above you can see him still trying to shake the (1) by moving out. Now that part is fine and actually goo race riding. He didn't straighten him up until the (1) gave it up.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

aubie said:


> Which, just me thinking, skips the Belmont and points towards the Haskell. Where I'm thinking Omaha Beach makes his return as well.


Sorry meant Travers. So much thinking this morning.


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## whisperbaby22 (Jan 25, 2013)

I did not watch the race, but the call had to be made. Horse racing in California is under attack due to the spate of deaths at Santa Anita. Officials are scrambling and PETA is gearing up to get a proposition on the ballot to have it outlawed.


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## Filou (Jan 16, 2014)

I see it that way too @whisperbaby22
10 years ago there wasn't as much of a campaign to make racing safer, as much as there was to just flat out ban horse racing. 
Now at least the discussion is pointed at making it safer rather than outlawing it. Good move to keep racing alive and bring a new breath into it. 
I think the horses should run, too much history lost if racing was banned in the USA.


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## horseylover1_1 (Feb 13, 2008)

aubie said:


> The discussion part is sad but unfortunately probably true.
> 
> I was wondering about intent as well. Going to post the video. Around the two minute mark is where stuff starts to happen. Wish the pictures had a time frame with it. Anyway it looks like Saez was all over the place. He dove down to the rail when the (13) made his move then came back out. Even closer to the wire from above you can see him still trying to shake the (1) by moving out. Now that part is fine and actually goo race riding. He didn't straighten him up until the (1) gave it up.
> 
> https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ci_ychn7ga0


Looks like he cut horses off twice. At 2:00 and 2:06 - or am I looking at it wrong?


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Not looking at it wrong he did. And on the way home he kept Maximum Security's head coked towards the stands and keep drifting to shake off WOW. That part is legal. Sometimes a really tired horse will do his head like that and keep it there. But MS snapped his straight ahead when asked. And went on with it. 

All of this, to me points to the horse was not spooked. Nor did anything other than what he was asked. Quite admirably I should add.


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## SilverMaple (Jun 24, 2017)

Saez has had issues with cutting off other horses before. This time he did it in a big race and it looks like a suspension may be handed down over the next few days. I didn't see a spooked horse-- I saw a horse angled out to take the corner wide by his jockey. West should be mad at his choice of jockey, not the Stewards.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Amen. That horse needed a good jockey Saturday. He dang sure held up his end.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

SilverMaple said:


> Saez has had issues with cutting off other horses before. This time he did it in a big race and it looks like a suspension may be handed down over the next few days. I didn't see a spooked horse-- I saw a horse angled out to take the corner wide by his jockey. West should be mad at his choice of jockey, not the Stewards.


And that overhead view shows he seemed to be seeking out ones to cut off.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Some good news. Mike's going to ride Improbable in the Preakness.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Here is a quote from Casse on why they didn't claim an objection 

You have to remember… we're only seeing a little bit of (the race live). I didn't really realize what happened. Tyler came back and said 'I almost went down' and I said to him 'It's not worth it. We were (eighth).' If we had finished fourth or third or second, we would have been claiming foul in an instant.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Apologies if this was already posted and I missed it, but this is the best article I have seen explaining what happened, why, and what should have been done differently. I still feel sad for the horse, but clearly the right call was made. 

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-ra...ntucky-derby-opinion-right-call-wrong-process


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

I guess now we really have seen it all. It was all WOWs fault. Unbelievable 

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-ra...believes-tapes-tell-a-different-tale-about-dq


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## boots (Jan 16, 2012)

aubie said:


> I guess now we really have seen it all. It was all WOWs fault. Unbelievable
> 
> https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-ra...believes-tapes-tell-a-different-tale-about-dq


Hmmph. He just lost my vote for being a good sport. :|


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

aubie said:


> I guess now we really have seen it all. It was all WOWs fault. Unbelievable
> 
> https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-ra...believes-tapes-tell-a-different-tale-about-dq


You beat me to it.... Notice the trainer hasn't come out saying anything like that. I understand that the owners are crushed by this loss, and frankly I still believe MS would have won regardless. However, that doesn't change what happened. 

Baffert has an entirely different take on the issue...

https://www.fox19.com/2019/05/06/report-baffert-issues-strong-objection-derby-result/


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## Tazzie (Nov 8, 2011)

I saw that this morning and was rather disgusted by it. It was posted on Facebook, and the people backing it up was astounding!

I may take the stance of a girl I know... no one gets an opinion unless they can physically canter a horse under saddle, safely.


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## SilverMaple (Jun 24, 2017)

Mine too. Suck it up and move on, West. You've now surpassed California Chrome's connections in the 'ridiculous excuses and complaining' compartment, which is saying a lot. Your horse drifted. According to the rules, he was disqualified. Also according to the rules, the stewards don't have to explain themselves to you. WoW wasn't the cause on Saturday but today he is? You have a problem with a 20-horse field but you didn't seem to when you entered two horses, so what gives? 



Being a graceful loser says a lot about a person. Being a whiny loser does, too.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

And the rebuttal 

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/...rity-bothered-war-of-will-not-once-but-twice/


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## SilverMaple (Jun 24, 2017)

All I know is that War of Will is agile as a cat not to go down in that mess, and kudos to him and his jockey for staying up, or nobody would be worried about who won, but instead mourning the loss of a lot of promising young horses and probably some jockeys, too.


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## boots (Jan 16, 2012)

Unfortunately, it will be horse racing as a whole that will suffer.

The industry doesn't need this.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

I know this boy wasn't in the Derby, but he was in the prep races. Hopefully for his owner and trainer he recovers well. 

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/233565/instagrand-diagnosed-with-sesamoid-fracture


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Luis Saez got 15 day suspension for his actions in the Derby. I was thinking he would have gotten 30 but this is ok.


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

Bet he tries to contest it...did you see where his lawyer presented video claiming it proved the other jockeys were responsible? I am still waiting to see if the Westside try to push it further...


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

I'm glad he got the days,,although was thinking they would just give him a warning and let it die down.

Actually every step of the way I've been proud of racing.


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

The only humor I have found in this situation so far.

From The New Yorker: "The Kentucky Derby, as Told by the Horses"


> *Maximum Security*: At first, I wasn’t sure where we were going. I remember being in a small, like, shed, with gates. But the gates were locked. I remember a very loud bell and the gates opened really fast and everyone was running. So I ran. I assumed it was a fire alarm. Also, there was a small man clinging to my back. I don’t know why.
> 
> *Country House*: When the bell rang, I wet myself. It was so loud. The gates flew open and I screamed. Everyone was running like mad. On my back was a tiny man dressed like a bumblebee. He had a stick and he was hitting my ***. Which was weird.
> 
> ...


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

cobra said:


> Bet he tries to contest it...did you see where his lawyer presented video claiming it proved the other jockeys were responsible? I am still waiting to see if the Westside try to push it further...


And they did.

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/...-federal-lawsuit-over-derby-disqualification/


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## SilverMaple (Jun 24, 2017)

This is getting way past ridiculous.


Anyone else betting the horse is retired due to 'injuries sustained in the Derby' rather than risk running him again and having him bomb?


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

SilverMaple said:


> This is getting way past ridiculous.
> 
> 
> Anyone else betting the horse is retired due to 'injuries sustained in the Derby' rather than risk running him again and having him bomb?


What makes you think he would bomb? I think Maximum Security is one of the best 3 yo colts this year. Not that any of them are superstars by any means (imo). I personally look forward to following his career. 

I feel bad for MS and his trainer. I do believe he was the best in the Derby that day. I respect the fact that I don't hear the trainer joining in bad mouthing the decision.

I do not feel bad for the owners or the jockey, not when they try to blame others for their errors. The West's need to accept the decision, even if they feel the Derby should be above having horses DQ'd. 

Clearly the way the DQ was handled could have been better, but I believe they made the correct decision.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-ra...sue-to-have-derby-disqualification-overturned


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## SilverMaple (Jun 24, 2017)

I didn't say he wasn't a nice colt. But they will claim he was a Derby winner, and try to market him as such. If he runs again and finishes off the board, it wouldn't look good. I hope they keep running him, but in the back of my mind is the distinct possibility they will 'take their ball and go home' if the lawsuit doesn't go their way. 

He was the best on Derby day. Nobody is saying otherwise. But rules are rules, and his owners are not accepting that when they entered him, they agreed to abide by the rules in Kentucky-- which state that a horse cannot impede another horse's progress, and an inquiry does not have to be lit up on the board. They also agreed to run 2 horses in a 20-horse field, so blaming CD for the issue doesn't stand, either.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Seems they have dialed it back a big. This is ok I think.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-ra...can-visit-maximum-security-at-monmouth-may-18


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## cobra (Jan 30, 2013)

aubie said:


> Seems they have dialed it back a big. This is ok I think.
> 
> https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-ra...can-visit-maximum-security-at-monmouth-may-18


Like I said, I have been impressed by the way the trainer has handled this. He is taking it much more in stride than the owners are. I look forward to Maximum Security next race, I really believe he could win top 3 yo male this year. Depends what happens in the Preakness and Belmont, granted. But if MS wins a few more stakes this year I believe he is a strong contender.


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## SilverMaple (Jun 24, 2017)

And of course NBC will be interviewing the Wests' a few minutes before the start of the Preakness.... *eye roll*


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

That's what makes me mad. NBC/ Mike Tirico can't resist being negative/stirring the pot. He can't seem to remember that he doesn't work for the four letter network anymore. 

It's beyond stupid. They are purposely hurting a sport that they paid to have the rights to cover. 

They don't dare do this nonsense on Sunday Night Football.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

cobra said:


> Like I said, I have been impressed by the way the trainer has handled this. He is taking it much more in stride than the owners are. I look forward to Maximum Security next race, I really believe he could win top 3 yo male this year. Depends what happens in the Preakness and Belmont, granted. But if MS wins a few more stakes this year I believe he is a strong contender.


I'm still undecided about him. I do think he is a nice colt. And although not sure of talent level what I said that day I still believe. He showed a ton of heart. Doing everything he was asked . Unfortunately he was asked the wrong things. 

How they manage him from here on out if they do race again will be important to end of year honors and possible breeding interests. Maybe he goes in the Haskell that shouldn't have a ton of "top" level talent signed in. American Pharoah ran in it just because his owners wanted to. 

If Mandella decides to keep Omaha Beach out west for a while, he can avoid him somewhat. That makes the Travers a possibly. 

All I know is his owners are behaving poorly.


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## SilverMaple (Jun 24, 2017)

I'd like to see MS go to the Haskell, the Travers, and the BC. Maybe not the Classic, but if he does well in a couple of other races, it's a possibility. I'm still on the fence about whether the Wests will even run him again, though. They seem the type to throw a fit and retire him. 



He'd be a cute little eventer/jumper, though... seems like a nice enough colt with a good temperament, and he is cute as a button.


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