# The Kentucky Derby



## BlindHorseEnthusiast4582 (Apr 11, 2016)

Subbing


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## csimkunas6 (Apr 18, 2010)

Also subbing. Dont have a clear favorite, and havent had as much time to check out all the contenders....but there are 2 Curlin babies running in it Ive kept somewhat of an eye on, but mainly like them due to their sire. I need to take a few minutes and really take a look at them all.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Curlin really has been doing well for awhile. I remember watching him and he always made my ticket.

Don't know if you saw the reality show Jockeys. It was filmed at Santa Anita. In one scene they showed the crowd at workouts. Everyone had heard he was working. They kept asking which was him. As you know they don't have numbers or anything and a bunch are on track at the same time. All at once you heard a collective gasp as he rounded the turn. They could just tell. Thought that was neat.


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## csimkunas6 (Apr 18, 2010)

aubie said:


> Curlin really has been doing well for awhile. I remember watching him and he always made my ticket.
> 
> Don't know if you saw the reality show Jockeys. It was filmed at Santa Anita. In one scene they showed the crowd at workouts. Everyone had heard he was working. They kept asking which was him. As you know they don't have numbers or anything and a bunch are on track at the same time. All at once you heard a collective gasp as he rounded the turn. They could just tell. Thought that was neat.


I watched it when it first came out! Ill have to go and rewatch it now though! lol. Would be interesting to see! My husband who doesnt keep up with racing what so ever, came home all excited about a horse named "Gronkowski" running in the Derby. Funny how some horses seem named to bring more attention to racing, Im sure he'll be upset to learn that he is no longer running in the Derby.

Honestly, it comes up so fast every year. A few weeks ago, it seemed like we still had a good while before it was even run, and here we are now, just a little over a week from the big race! This year sure is flying!


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

He would have drawn a lot of attention. But you can soften the bad news by telling him that is is pointed and planning on Belmont, and by all reports responding well/quickly to treatment.


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## Wild Heart (Oct 4, 2010)

Can we talk about the Oaks too? :wink: 

Super excited for the Derby (asked for the day off from work), been following along fairly well with the horses this year. 

Looks like Pletcher has quite a few of his trained horses in the race.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Absolutely we can talk about the Oaks here. After the draw I will post a thread with entries, covering information and so forth. 

Pletcher does have a very nice group this year, even by his standards.


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## Wild Heart (Oct 4, 2010)

For the Oaks it looks like Midnight Bisou and Monomoy Girl are the ones to beat.

Monomoy and Midnight seem (at least to me) run very similarly. Their race times are incredibly close but I believe with the distance that the Oaks is, I feel Monomoy Girl may just pull out the win as she has ran and does well with the longer distances.


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## BlindHorseEnthusiast4582 (Apr 11, 2016)

I was looking a bit at Villo Rosso today, possibly for the Derby, and I'm liking what I see! Moving up 12 lengths to win by 3 in the Wood Memorial got me interested.


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## Wild Heart (Oct 4, 2010)

I don't know why and it could just be me but Vino Rosso's stride appears to be have so much extension to it. When he first broke from the gate my eyes went right to him not even knowing who was who. But his run at the Wood Memorial was a great and I think him and Velazquez make a great team.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

BlindHorseEnthusiast4582 said:


> I was looking a bit at Villo Rosso today, possibly for the Derby, and I'm liking what I see! Moving up 12 lengths to win by 3 in the Wood Memorial got me interested.


To further your interest his 4th in the Tampa Bay Derby wasn't all that great. But a while later read in an interview Johnny V said he really was only giving him 50% and really didn't like the surface. Seems to be putting it all together at the right time.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Wild Heart said:


> I don't know why and it could just be me but Vino Rosso's stride appears to be have so much extension to it. When he first broke from the gate my eyes went right to him not even knowing who was who. But his run at the Wood Memorial was a great and I think him and Velazquez make a great team.


They do, I like him. Visual is important not me theses days. The opposite is Audible. He has a nice middle move and finishes up well. But at times , to me, he seems to have lead change issues and becomes a little leg weary because of it.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Making the usual appearance Secretariat. A little sadder this year without Penny. And Bill Nack who adds so much to this documentary.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Wild Heart said:


> I don't know why and it could just be me but Vino Rosso's stride appears to be have so much extension to it. When he first broke from the gate my eyes went right to him not even knowing who was who. But his run at the Wood Memorial was a great and I think him and Velazquez make a great team.


Here is his work this morning.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

As you can tell that was light. I believe he is scheduled for a real work tomorrow. Will post video of that when available. And hopefully more works.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

No Derby season would be complete without trainer Carl Nafzger and Mrs. Genter. I realize I post every year. May some new ones haven't seen. For others I never really thought about it this way until someone on another board pointed it out. It's like watching the Christmas shows in a way. It just becomes tradition. Derby is kinda like a holiday of sorts to me.

Anyway, for those that haven't seen or know the story- Mrs. Genter owned a horse named Unbridled. Yep you know nowhere this is going. But she was 92 years old and didn't see very well or hear very well. It was cold and wet and she thought she should stay home to watch. Carl wanted her to come. Said he would be here eyes and ears. This was 1990 and being Mike up was new. He forgot he was and did not know they where filming.

What happened next is not only the most touching moment in Derby history, but maybe all of sport.


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## Wild Heart (Oct 4, 2010)

That's such a beautiful video. I've seen it once before, probably a couple years ago, but it's such a joy to see it again. That was such a touching moment and definitely deserves to be a Derby tradition!


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Not all news is on the horses. This one is frankly disturbing and disgusting, but not the least bit surprising. If racing ever fails the first finger will be pointed at CDI.

Today's addition is they denied media credentials to Caton. 

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/...dential-to-longtime-broadcaster-caton-bredar/


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## Wild Heart (Oct 4, 2010)

Wow, just wow. 

As you said, it's not the least bit surprising but still can't believe they made such a poor decision. I really enjoyed Caton.

The CDI is doing obviously not doing itself, or the racing world any favors.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

I am sorry I haven't had more works up. They have been harder to find. There have been some works shows, presented by CDI. They are longer but there is some good information. I will try to get that up.

Speaking of, public outcry made them extend media credentials to Caton. It was so stupid and petty in the first place.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

For the Oaks here is a report on Momomoy Girl. https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-ra...-girl-sitting-on-go-after-final-ky-oaks-drill


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Also for the Oaks, Blamed is out https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-ra...-park-oaks-winner-blamed-out-of-kentucky-oaks


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Under features here is some of my favorites. First the race that goes with the Mrs. Genter video. The actual call was pretty good as well.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

I post this one every year because not only it's a documentary of an amazing horse, but so much history as well. For those who haven't seen or want to again, Whirlaway


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The Oaks Draw has been held. Momomoy Girl did draw the outside (14) post. I will have full field posts, jocks, odds up shortly. Copy and paste doesn't really turn out well so I type them out.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Here is coverage schedule for Derby Week. https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/227275/radio-television-schedules-for-derby-week


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

The draw is today at 11:00 will report and then hopefully get entry information up soon after.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Ahead of the draw, a look at some of the numbers.

No horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby from post 17

One horse has won from post 20- Big Brown ten years ago

The inside 1-4 has not been kind at all. The last horse to win from the 1 was in 1989,Winning Colors(15 entries) 

1987 Alysheba from the 3 (17 entries) and 1986 Ferdinand from the 1 (16) entries 

A closer look at these you see Hall Of Famers everywhere, some of the best ever in connections. 
Gary Stevens on Winning Colors for D. Wayne Lucus, Chris McCarron on Alysheba for Jack Van Berg, and The Shoe on Ferdinand for Charlie Wittingham


The 4 has had only one winner since Seattle Slew.

Oddly the 5 has been really good. 5-14 seems to be the desired spot.


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## LoveGus (Oct 4, 2016)

Post Positions

1. FIRENZE FIRE
2. FREE DROP BILLY
3. PROMISES FULFILLED
4. FLAMEAWAY
5. AUDIBLE
6. GOOD MAGIC
7. JUSTIFY 
8. LONE SAILOR
9. HOFBURG
10. MY BOY JACK
11. BOLT D ORO 
12. ENTICED
13. BRAVAZO
14. MENDELSSOHN 
15. INSTILLED REGARD
16. MAGNUM MOON
17. SOLOMINI
18. VINO ROSSO 
19. NOBLE INDY
20. COMBATANT

Don't have a favorite none of the horses this year floored me.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Quick look says it really could not have gone better. A lot of interest in Vino Rosso, his spot is just fine for his style. In fact thinking some of the ones that want to be up front are close together so a really nice spot. Probably lets Magnum Moon go, and follow behind.


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## BlindHorseEnthusiast4582 (Apr 11, 2016)

I'm sad that Vino Rosso drew such a bad position, but it'll make it interesting. Audible is the only other one I've really heard anything about.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Justify drew very well. That takes one of the concerns away. The other is traffic. He just hasn't been in any large fields. But talent he has tons of. I was already excited about him then saw his second race. He went :22 and change, :44 and change, 1:10 and change on a wet track and was looking around. His won his prep(Santa Anita Derby) and his figures would win all the other preps.


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## LoveGus (Oct 4, 2016)

I'm not a fan of Audible, those hooves worry me. Just watched a video and they even said he had some pre training work done on his hoof walls. Poor hooves aren't good for any horse

Oro as someone said hasn't been showing a ton of fight so pass

I don't have a true favorite non catch my eye


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Another trend that has been going on lately is favorites have been doing very well lately. Specifically since going to the points system. I'm not exactly sure why. Before that favorites rarely won.

It's. Thursday so time for first round of cuts here shortly. May look lazy when I take out a lot of higher odd horses. But there is thought behind them. I will still do the horse by horse stuff probably late tomorrow night as tonight will be focused on the Oaks. Also trying to wind my week down to be done by Friday lunch. I say that every year and it still ends up being just in time for Oaks coverage. Going to do better this year.


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## phantomhorse13 (Feb 18, 2011)

I always pick horses by names I like.. so this year my pics are, in no particular order, Good Magic, Justify and Entice.

I look forward to seeing just how things go on race day.. many years I have managed to get the first place and last place horses by pure luck. Funny there is no box bet for that! :lol:


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

That's more of a prop bet. With the hopefull postive ruling from SCOTUS , it may be a possibility next year.


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## kewpalace (Jul 17, 2013)

My pix - no particular order - Justify, Vino Rosso and Good Magic. 

Should be a good race, but will have to tape it as I will likely be on the Road or prepping for a Sunday show. Wishing all the horses & jockeys a good safe trip!


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## LoveGus (Oct 4, 2016)

Oaks day today, honestly never watched it maybe I will today. 

Last year's Derby winner finished out of the money in the Alysheba stakes. It's like the derby took everything from him


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

He really has gone backwards. Last year was the most inconsistent group I can recall. But that's just sad to see a Derby winner not winning again. Not the first time but still. And a little mad to see ole Hoppertunity finish out of the money. I know he is 7 but this looks to be it for him.


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## LoveGus (Oct 4, 2016)

aubie said:


> He really has gone backwards. Last year was the most inconsistent group I can recall. But that's just sad to see a Derby winner not winning again. Not the first time but still. And a little mad to see ole Hoppertunity finish out of the money. I know he is 7 but this looks to be it for him.


Suprised he's still going. I think it's time for Dreaming to either retire or go to grade 3 (easier races). 

I really am liking MENDELSSOHN lots of videos of him I've seen he looks full of vim and vigor


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

It is time for him to retire. Not going to be any interest as a stallion I would think.

Mendelson being a half to Beholder is in itself enough for me to put in selections.


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## LoveGus (Oct 4, 2016)

aubie said:


> It is time for him to retire. Not going to be any interest as a stallion I would think.
> 
> Mendelson being a half to Beholder is in itself enough for me to put in selections.


He seems very full of himself all ways making noise or some sort of scene. Hopefully he's calm tomorrow and saves his energy


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

Passing on Justify.

Will spend a few extra dollars for an exacta box with 14 (Mendelssohn), 11 (Bolt D’Oro), and 6 (Good Magic). I wanted to figure out a way to get Free Drop Billy in but that’s a real long shot. Maybe for a 0.10 superfecta.

Lots of fun stuff in here this year for pedigree geeks.

In honor of Good Magic (Curlin x Hard Spun mare):





Mendelssohn is technically Audible’s “uncle”-half to Into Mischief.

Really want to be able to like Enticed because of his nice dam It’s Tricky, but I don’t think he wins this race.

And of course, the last 4 Scat Daddy babies to run a Derby.

Most importantly, may they all come home safe and sound.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Great thoughts. Was wondering why the pass on Justify? Experience certainly could be an issue.


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## Wild Heart (Oct 4, 2010)

Doing some reading on the Curse of Apollo and if Justify will be the horse to break it. He certainly has the talent to break it but wondering how he will fare against being bumped around with the other 19. But then again, Magnum Moon has a chance at breaking the curse as well. 

I'm also keeping a close eye on Bolt d'Oro as well. Espinoza has quite the resume with the Kentucky Derby and he ran a great race at the Santa Anita Derby.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Bolt is really interesting to me. First he is a higher price than his talent calls for in my opinion. He really hasn't had things his own way in his races, yet he is always there. His figures are there.

And this so isn't an argument or disagreement, but a discussion (which I love) but while I know Victor has had huge success I don't count him as a big plus. 

Justify has legitimate concerns. But the talent is there. Triple digits Beyers in his races. Promises Fulfilled is to his inside and will definitely beat him out of the gate. How big a mash up that causes, I don't know


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

egrogan said:


> Passing on Justify.
> 
> Will spend a few extra dollars for an exacta box with 14 (Mendelssohn), 11 (Bolt D’Oro), and 6 (Good Magic). I wanted to figure out a way to get Free Drop Billy in but that’s a real long shot. Maybe for a 0.10 superfecta.
> 
> ...


In my night before digging around found something on Mendelson- everybody is talking about his very impressive UAE Derby, and rightfully so. But his Breeders Cup Juvenile, 8-9 of the other horses came back to win stakes races. Some of them are in the field including Solomini and My Boy Jack. That's impressive


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## Loner (Dec 21, 2017)

I have been hearing a lot about Magnum Moon.Anyone know anything about him?


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

He is an undefeated horse looking to break Apollos curse ( No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby)
He is talented and has been impressive in his preps.
Here is his very nice pedigree.

Magnum Moon Horse Pedigree

Edit: I should point out a concern is he is coming in on 3 weeks where the others have more time. BUT in the pedigree you notice Seattle Slew. If I remember correctly, Slew won a race 2 weeks before the Derby and then went on to win the Triple Crown. If you're the horse, you're the horse.


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## Loner (Dec 21, 2017)

Thanks for the info.I guess we will see tomorrow.


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## Wild Heart (Oct 4, 2010)

aubie said:


> And this so isn't an argument or disagreement, but a discussion (which I love) but while I know Victor has had huge success I don't count him as a big plus.


And I could very well just be star-struck with the fact that he was the jockey for the latest triple crown winner. However, he has had multiple opportunities to win the triple crown and I feel just having those odds on your side is beneficial. 

Not to say that the other jockeys have no talent. I've always been fond of Mike Smith and always keep a close eye on him and his mounts.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Here are my Kentucky Derby 144 thoughts- I did this for another board and pasted where a lot of the focus is on wagering and ticket construction. For here I don't want this to come across wrong,,and I am certainly not meaning to disregard others opinion or suggest mine is better. These are just my thoughts.


1)Seems to be a one turn horse in bad form right now. Not what you want to see from the 1 spot on Derby day. 4th in the Wood last out doesn't help, cut

2)His 4th in the Bluegrass wasn't very inspiring, and seems to have found his level. Unfortunately it's not inline with the heavy hitters here.
Cut for boxes, possible wheel underneath due to sire and trainer Dale Romans

3)Speaking of Dale he is saying he is going to send again. Can't really understand way as last time it was disastrous. Maybe a mind game. At any rate he is going to drop anchor, and may be fighting it out for last, cut

4)He may not have as much talent but he is honest and is a stayer. Makes him a possible filler on bottom of wheels, especially if playing superfecta.

5)Although visually I see some footwork and lead change issues everything else is there. The aforementioned middle moves that finishes. That's huge in the Derby. Plus he closed at Gulfstream. Not easy to do, plus Javier is up, user

6)Seems to be rounding back in form. I would be surprised if he wins, as his Bluegrass win was just ok. But he is also ok solid so that makes him a filler on wheels sort.

7)Legitimate concerns when it comes to experience and some on his breaking ability . The good news is the 3 or 4 to his right have none at all. Price is going to be shorter than it really should be for a horse looking to do something that hasn't been done in 136 years. But he is that talented, user

8)If runs race of life, maybe makes the superfecta. At best., cut. But if taking a swing looking for price and fillers if you have room. But I would make him a single in the bottom spots and spend elsewhere

9)All reports he is having a great week at Churchill and looks great in works. Bill Moot doesn't make moves like this on a lightly raced horse without really seeing something. User. Would make him the Across the board recipient as he is in double digits right now. But probably going to drop due to the buzz.

10)Cut in main users(Sorry SupperClub) seems to be distance challenged. No secret I don't like Kent. That said he is a closer and will take back and make one run. Will do a very inexpensive wheel as the cya play

11)Some real concerns, which is surprising. He hasn't won since September. His trainer is 3 of 61 this year. That said there are more positives. He is talented, has the speed, and experience. He hasn't had is way of late, but he doesn't quit. Has done best 3rd off layoff which he is here.Very useful in the Derby, user

12)Distance challenged and likes to give it up, cut from main users, stretch for underneath.

13)Brain says cut. Bad form, didn't do any running last out. $2 win cause I just can't leave out D. Wayne Lucus on Derby day.

14)What to do with Mendelson. Some real negatives. First and foremost the travel. Just cleared quarantine barn a day or two ago so not much over the track and no works here. His UAE Derby wasn't against much. The second place finisher was the (7) in the Oaks and didn't hit the board. Although the track over there is very early speed favoring, he was impressive. Great connections. My mind says maybe third or fourth. Gut says half to Beholder is huge. Also he just may be a special horse in the making . See as a move around in wheel

15)Looks to have peeked when a step forward is what's needed, cut

16)Not Crazy about how the Arkansas form and speed turned out. Likes to lug out late which is troubling going longer. But has talent. Don't think he is the one to break the curse. But a sprinkle in wheel type.

17)Been beat by to many in here to consider a user, cut.

18)Seems to be really finding his way. Not going to cut Johnny V ,On a son of Curlin for Pletcher. Especially when DFR is reporting Todd gave him a choice between this one and Audible. Outside post is actually fitting his style, user

19)Outside post doesn't fit his. Louisiana circuit hasn't done well in Derby. I do like this horses effort and will use, just not today

20)Bad post. Seems to be the hanging sort, nope


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

aubie said:


> Great thoughts. Was wondering why the pass on Justify? Experience certainly could be an issue.


Yeah, I think this time of year I just have an aversion to “bandwagon” type horses. He is gorgeous and seems talented, but the experience is definitely a concern. I think the stat they shared yesterday was that he will run against more horses in the Derby than he has in all his races so far. It’s just a different kind of race for them to succeed in. But definitely won’t be surprised if he’s still going strong in November!

I thought it was interesting that in their separate Oaks interviews both Mike Smith and Bob Baffert chose the word “intelligent” to describe him. Hope we get to hear a little more today about what he’s like to be around.


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## LoveGus (Oct 4, 2016)

I am not a fan of Audible. My opinion I would geld him and find a new job for him. Reason is his shelly hooves. Hate to see those passed on and hooves like that even with filler aren't good for any athlete.

Bolt D Oro I don't like. As someone else said "haven't seen any try in him in his last few races." Also not the type to cheer for a bandwagon horse

Justify I like him but he's another band wagon horse.

Mandelson (spelled wrong I'm sure) I like. He seems to have alot of vim and vigor. Always showing off, making a scene. Hopefully today he channels that energy into the race.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Alight rain is falling. Coverage starts in 30 minutes so we will see.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Friend in Kentucky just said Louisville is under a flash flood warning.


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## LoveGus (Oct 4, 2016)

aubie said:


> Friend in Kentucky just said Louisville is under a flash flood warning.


That mean it'll be post poned?


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

No they will have it in any weather outside of lightning. Churchill downs has lights so it will be run today.


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## Filou (Jan 16, 2014)

Anyone know what the track condition is being called right now?

My thoughts are that Bolt d'oro has a good shot since he's run on mud before, but his post position isn't ideal. He has shown me he can navigate the field, which I think is essential to the derby. 
I really like Justify, I love bob baffert, but it's hard to say what will happen, I think if he gets stuck behind someone he will have a hard time, but if he gets out in front he's got a shot. 
Audible, has also shown me he can navigate the field, and has a good post position. 
I'm interested in Mendelssohn but I just don't know enough about his experience to say either way. He seems like a world class horse but that doesn't always fan out to a derby winner. 

Some of the horses seems to be gaining popularity, and they have a good jockey, but I don't think they have the speed to keep up.


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## Wild Heart (Oct 4, 2010)

It's currently the wettest Kentucky Derby on record. It has broken the old mark of 2.31" in 1918.

Doing some reading and it looks like only 7 of the 20 horses have ever competed in muddy conditions. Flameaway having won two races in the rain.

But the track will be slow and very sloppy.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Flameaway definitely will get a small wheel just for him.


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## Filou (Jan 16, 2014)

Well, being a fan of Bolt d'oro, justify, and audible, that was a fun race for me to watch!


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Wow, what a race.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

will post replay, recap etc in a little while. Got prices of the TVG scroll, but can't get complete results yet. CDI has not released them yet, almost an hour after the race.


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## SilverMaple (Jun 24, 2017)

What an impressive race by Justify. He looks like a 5 y.o. out there compared to the rest of the horses. Say what you will about Baffert, but his horses always look amazing. Fast fractions on a sloppy track and a win drawing away says a lot for this colt. Plus I'm a fan of Ghostzapper, so that's even better 

I hope Mendelssohn is ok. He got slammed hard at least three times and was eased. Hopefully his jockey did so to save him rather than because the colt was hurt. He's a lovely horse and it's too bad he didn't get a chance to run his race.


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## csimkunas6 (Apr 18, 2010)

Although my favorites were Vinno Rosso and Good Magic, Justify sure made me a fan! I seem to always steer away from the hype over sure a major favorite overall, but he did fantastic! Good Magic impressed me though! Will be interesting to see what happens going into the Preakness! The Preakness has always been my favorite out of the three major races


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## SilverMaple (Jun 24, 2017)

My husband had bet $20 on Instilled Regard to Show. Too bad he didn't quite get up and finished fourth. At 85-1, he was worth a shot, and it's hard to bet against a Hollendorfer-trained colt. He may be a factor if he goes to the Belmont for sure.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

SilverMaple said:


> What an impressive race by Justify. He looks like a 5 y.o. out there compared to the rest of the horses. Say what you will about Baffert, but his horses always look amazing. Fast fractions on a sloppy track and a win drawing away says a lot for this colt. Plus I'm a fan of Ghostzapper, so that's even better
> 
> I hope Mendelssohn is ok. He got slammed hard at least three times and was eased. Hopefully his jockey did so to save him rather than because the colt was hurt. He's a lovely horse and it's too bad he didn't get a chance to run his race.


Will keep check on news sites and message boards for news on him. I hope he is ok as well.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

A little recap. $69.20 exacta and $141.40 trifecta. Not bad considering the favorite won with logicals 2nd&3rd.

Overall besides a great race, I thought coverage by NBC was pretty good. Tara and Johnny aside. That man dress moo moo thing was awful.

Here is the replay


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

I do hate when this race is run on a track this bad. On such a big day, you want conditions to be the best to see them all run their best.



SilverMaple said:


> I hope Mendelssohn is ok. He got slammed hard at least three times and was eased. Hopefully his jockey did so to save him rather than because the colt was hurt. He's a lovely horse and it's too bad he didn't get a chance to run his race.


Yep, that was the biggest disappointment for me yesterday. He had an awful time of it, and the track clearly didn't help. I do hope he's ok. I haven't seen any news reports this morning. I did see a few people commenting that Churchill should be able to figure out out to build a 20 stall gate to use for the Derby, which makes a lot of sense to me. Classic Empire took the same kind of body slamming from the same post position last year.

Justify seemed to love that sloppy track. Will be interesting to see what he does the rest of the year. I assume they'll keep him going through November but can't imagine we'll see him as a 4-year-old.

Anyway, I raise my julep to the winners- I had the wrong favorite in my exacta this time, even though Good Magic came second as I thought he could :wink:


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## LoveGus (Oct 4, 2016)

Was not surprised to see where Oro placed. New jockey plus his last outings haven't wowed me.
.
I'm happy for Justify he seemed to have fun. Hopefully this race didn't burn him for the preakness. Slop seems to take alot out 


Mendelssohn per a tweet is ok. They are going to go regroup at home and aim for the Breeders Cup.


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## AnitaAnne (Oct 31, 2010)

Thanks for posting these every year @aubie I don't have a TV so appreciate you posting this replay


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

@AnitaAnne you are very welcome. I try to have everything in one place so it's easy to follow. Always try to have live options also. But it's difficult when CDI is involved. 

Wasn't surprised where Bolt finished either. Not necessarily a new jockey, but the one they picked. Don't know if it really would have mattered.

This horse is special.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Record handle for Derby day and for the race itself. Have not seen tv numbers yet.

As for the Preakness- so far this from DRF. According to drf.com, other horses being considered for this year's Preakness thus far include: Quip, Diamond King, Bravazo, and Sporting Chance.


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## LoveGus (Oct 4, 2016)

aubie said:


> @AnitaAnne you are very welcome. I try to have everything in one place so it's easy to follow. Always try to have live options also. But it's difficult when CDI is involved.
> 
> Wasn't surprised where Bolt finished either. Not necessarily a new jockey, but the one they picked. Don't know if it really would have mattered.
> 
> This horse is special.


Oro is out of the preakness and Belmont he's heading to California to prep for the Pacific classic. Just saw it on twitter


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Probably best, as he looked spent.


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## Dixiesmom (May 26, 2013)

Justify looked solid. Thought Audible made a nice late run to almost get 2nd. I agree, I want a nice fast track. And LESS horses. I know every now and then a long shot pulls an upset, but I just don't think an 85-1 horse really needs to be out there. Who knows how things would have gone had there not been so much body slamming out of the gate for multiple horses, and less traffic to weave through to the top of the stretch. If you're going to let everyone in, make a straight 1 1/4 mile track so everyone has a clear run.


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## phantomhorse13 (Feb 18, 2011)

After seeing the video posted of Justify today, I am seriously wondering if we will see him in any other races any time soon..







Ouch. For the sake of the horse, I hope that left hind isn't as seriously injured as it seems.


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## Allison Finch (Oct 21, 2009)

Yes, Justify was REALLY lame. And, the stupid owner kept turning him in tight circles,.....the worst thing he could do. Was he freaking BLIND? He never seemed to even notice the leg was barely weight bearing.


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## phantomhorse13 (Feb 18, 2011)

Allison Finch said:


> And, the stupid owner kept turning him in tight circles,


That is the TRAINER! 

I could maybe excuse the owner for not knowing any better (no idea if this owner is a horse person, but many owners are not), but why on earth would _Baffert_ keep doing that? He had to know Justify was lame, so you would think he would limit the showing to an out and back (as he didn't seem nearly so lame walking straight) and only turn right!


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## egrogan (Jun 1, 2011)

But the best part was the explanation was “scratches” :icon_rolleyes:

THIS is why people hate horse racing. This is one of the most valuable horses in the world and he is basically three legged lame while being paraded in front of 100 journalists.

Sigh.


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## Caledonian (Nov 27, 2016)

I have to agree. It's a shame that he put a photo op above the welfare of the horse. Even the unhorsey will laugh at 'scratches' . He must've had a tough race, as the conditions look miserable. I can only see photos and the videos won't play in this country.


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## horseluvr2524 (Sep 17, 2013)

I missed watching the derby live  thanks for the replay post @aubie !

I did see some coverage yesterday on the TV at a bar. When I saw that Mike Smith was riding, I knew immediately who I would bet on (if I did bet). I don't follow racing to know anything about the horses really, but I'm familiar with Mike Smith's epic career. Very good at what he does. And I'm sure part of that is getting the rides for the really nice horses.  Justify has an amazing stride on him!

Too bad that Justify is lame now though! He looked kind of lame to me walking around after the race. Definitely not feeling good this morning, poor guy.

Is it true he did not race as a two year old? I find it sad that the horse who is allowed to mature ends up with what seems like a fairly serious injury.


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## Wild Heart (Oct 4, 2010)

Right after the race Justify even appeared to be a little "off" on his left hind. My non-horsey family commented that he appeared to be limping. 

And now it looks like he is completely lame with the excuse of scratches. More like he's going to GET scratched if he doesn't make a quick recovery.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

Yes it's true he did not race as a 2 yo old.

As for the video some thoughts- First no way Bob walks him out there if he is lame. You would have gotten a stall shot of him feeding him carrots or the like. Followed by some announcement next week that he has an issue and won't travel to Baltimore. 

Clearly the first part looks bad. As mentioned he was holding weight off an on toe. Bob would not have spun him if he thought something was wrong beforehand. He obviously didn't like the gravel. 

I have watched the last part of the video about ten times. At around the :50 mark he shakes his head and tuns to go back in. When he is on solid level surface his left foot goes back down. I watch his stride and hips. This hips are level. What you see in his shoes is level. Since he is wearing wraps I watched those. Identical movement walking away. He is putting weight on both hind feet. 

The good news is since he is done with Churchill we will see more of him. Will see every jog and work. If something is amiss then we will see it.


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## LoveGus (Oct 4, 2016)

Baffert even blamed it on Justify not liking cameras. Hmmmm yeah ok. Wonder what's truly going on. 

I beat they run him in the preakness and he's going to lose


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

He will not lose the Preakness or Belmont for that matter. Either he doesn't go or he wins. 

There is way to much at stake for this horse. He will make 5 times the Preakness purse in the Classic and 6 time in the Pegasus next year and there is the World Cup. He will be on the same schedule after the Triple Crown series- minus the Tavers as Arrogate. I don't think he will go there.

But it's early, we will see.


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## Dixiesmom (May 26, 2013)

The video is disturbing - why only one foot/leg/hip? I could buy tender on gravel if it was equal, but it's so dramatic in one foot. But I did also feel he looked good once in the barn. Would have been interesting to see him turned in the barn as well. Just weird.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

i would have liked to see down the shedrow as well.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

My Boy Jack will also be given some time off. Probably see him at shorter distances and some turf.


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## LoveGus (Oct 4, 2016)

aubie said:


> My Boy Jack will also be given some time off. Probably see him at shorter distances and some turf.


He went for 15th to 5th on the last turn so he definetly deserves the break


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## SilverMaple (Jun 24, 2017)

Heard Mendelssohn spent the evening being lavaged for inhaled sand, and was on a plane for Ireland this morning. Sounds like he is getting a rest then will be aimed toward the Breeder's Cup. 

The video of Justify is concerning. No way Baffert takes him out there if he knows he's lame. Hopefully he stepped on a rock or something and it's nothing serious. I have seen horses come off a sealed sloppy track with raw coronets and pasterns on the rear legs-- he wore rundowns during the race but maybe that's all it is.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

He did. I didn't like him as a user. Saw and still see him as distance challenged. He couldn't get past Noble Indy in the softest prep circuit, Louisiana. He does grow when water is added.

I try to be fair. Obviously dislike Kent. But his brother does an amazing job. In the ring and coaching them up. Jack is a 10,000 dollar purchase in the Kentucky Derby. And he routinely finds good horses at good prices and has them in big races. That's good for racing.


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## aubie (Aug 24, 2013)

A fantastic article by Steve Haskin. ?A Beast From Day One? - Hangin' With Haskin


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